Energy Risk India Can’t Ignore

India Can No Longer Afford To Watch The West Asia Crisis From The Sidelines

By Govindraj Ethiraj

On Thursday, the mercury in Mumbai scraped 39°C — a stifling and near-unprecedented figure for the first week of March. 

But the real heat bearing down on the Indian economy is radiating from the Persian Gulf.

India’s meteorological department is forecasting an extended period of heatwaves this month. 

To keep the air conditioners running when the sun goes down and solar power drops off the grid, India relies heavily on its gas-fired power plants. 

According to SR Narasimhan, former chief of the Grid Controller of India, in a recent interview with Bloomberg, the country requires roughly 13 gigawatts of gas power to meet evening demand during periods of severe grid stress. 

Without sufficient liquefied natural gas (LNG), that capacity could be slashed to a mere quarter, leaving the grid dangerously dependent on unpredictable wind generation.

The Shattering Of An Illusion

The escalating conflict in West Asia has abruptly frozen those vital energy pipelines. Following retaliatory Iranian strikes across the region, Qatar — which historically supplies roughly half of India’s LNG imports — has shuttered its facilities. 

The vulnerability is already manifesting. Brent crude has hit $90 per barrel amid the conflict. 

Qatari Energy Minister Saad al-Kaabi delivered a blunt warning in the Financial Times on Friday, stating that if the conflict continues, all Gulf energy producers could be forced to halt exports within weeks, potentially driving crude to $150 a barrel and knocking 20% of global  LNG offline for months.

For decades, the Gulf states were viewed by Indian policymakers and investors alike as an oasis of calm, quite literally. 

The relationship has evolved from a simple pipeline of blue-collar Indian labour in the 1970s to a highly sophisticated economic symbiosis. Some 9 million Indians now live in the Gulf states.

As the UAE and its neighbours aggressively diversified their economies and prepared for a world beyond oil, they built world-class aviation hubs via airlines like Emirates and Etihad, invested heavily in cultural landmarks like the Louvre Abu Dhabi, and transformed into premium, tax-free havens.

Once, Indians were sending remittances home; today, the flow has reversed too, with wealthy Indians offshoring their millions to the Gulf. 

Indians now constitute more than 20% of foreign property buyers in Dubai, seeking first-world infrastructure combined with geographic proximity and a familiar cultural footprint.

But as munitions rain down on Doha, Manama, and Dubai, the illusion of invulnerability has shattered. 

Crossing The Red Line

The investors who bought into the Dubai dream rarely factored West Asian history — or geography — into their risk models.

But the Gulf states, societies that engineered modern, gleaming metropolises out of the desert in a single century, possess the resilience and capital to weather this storm. 

They are already working overtime to protect their global brands, with airlines like Emirates and Etihad prioritising the care of stranded tourists and slowly resuming select flights.

India’s fate is now inextricably linked to the volatility of this region, and the second-order economic damage of a prolonged war can be severe. 

Beyond keeping the lights on, LNG is the lifeblood of India's city gas distribution networks, which supply piped cooking gas to millions of households. 

As Saurav Mitra, a partner at Grant Thornton Bharat, notes, these networks still rely on LNG imports for roughly a third of their supply. 

For now, India is actively diverting gas from industrial uses like fertiliser to protect domestic cooking supplies.

India must leverage its diplomatic weight to push for a resolution to this conflict. 

The Indian middle class has proven resilient through various economic shocks, but a prolonged disruption to household cooking fuel, literally and figuratively, is a political and economic red line the country will find it difficult to cross.

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UAE Announces Aid for Stranded Passengers, But Some Say Support Yet To Reach Them

By Zinal Dedhia

What? 

Thousands of travellers, including many Indians, remain stranded across the UAE as widespread flight cancellations triggered by the West Asia conflict continue to disrupt one of the world’s busiest aviation corridors.

The escalation involving Iran, Israel and the United States forced multiple West Asian countries to shut or restrict their airspace, creating a cascading impact across global airline networks. Major carriers, including Emirates, Etihad Airways, Qatar Airways, Lufthansa, IndiGo and Air India, suspended or cancelled flights due to safety concerns.

The disruptions have been felt most acutely in major Gulf transit hubs such as Dubai International Airport and Zayed International Airport in Abu Dhabi, which together handle tens of millions of international passengers each year.

Globally, more than 11,000 flights have been cancelled since the crisis escalated, affecting over a million passengers and leaving hundreds of thousands stranded across the region.

Several Indians have been among those stranded in the UAE, waiting for airlines to resume services or secure seats on rescheduled flights back to cities such as Mumbai, Delhi and Chennai.

The UAE’s General Civil Aviation Authority said the government would cover accommodation and meal costs for passengers stranded due to the regional airspace closures. Officials say more than 20,000 travellers have already received hotel accommodation, food support and rebooking assistance.

Yet travellers’ experiences on the ground have varied depending on airlines, booking channels and flight routes, with several passengers saying they have had to arrange and pay for their own accommodation and food.

Why? 

Tania Desai (name changed), an Indian traveller who had a return flight from Dubai International Airport on March 1, has seen her stay extended by nearly a week after her flight was cancelled.

Desai had been scheduled to fly home on an Emirates flight, but the disruption forced the airline to rebook her journey.

Because her ticket was booked through a travel agent, Desai said communication from the airline has been limited, leaving her waiting for updates.

“There has been no direct communication from the airline,” she said, adding that she is still waiting for confirmation from the travel agent regarding further details of the rescheduled journey.

In the meantime, Desai has been arranging her own accommodation in the city.

She said hotel rooms initially cost around 580 dirhams per night for the first two days before discounted rates of about 480 dirhams became available as hotels adjusted to the influx of stranded travellers.

“It's been almost 15 days now (since the trip to the UAE started), and the extended stay is becoming increasingly expensive. I’m also facing difficulties transferring money from India. With very limited resources left, I’m just hoping to return home soon,” she said.

Desai isn’t alone.

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