Visa Walls, Shifting Dreams

Good Morning. For years, sending children abroad was the ultimate middle-class ambition. But with visa refusals rising, fees soaring, and politics turning hostile, that dream is starting to fray. Canada is shutting doors, the US is hedging bets, and Europe isn’t rolling out the welcome mat either. Maybe it’s time parents and students rethink whether the foreign degree is still worth the gamble.

The H-1B visa fees continued to affect India’s markets on Wednesday, with India's stock benchmarks retreating for the fourth consecutive day. The BSE Sensex closed at 386 points, or 0.47% lower at 81,716, and the Nifty50 closed 113 points or 0.45% lower at 25,057.

In other news, the Indian government has big plans for shipbuilding. Meanwhile, air conditioner sales may take a hit.

THE TAKE

In A Changing World Order, Students And Parents Must Revisit Foreign Degrees

By Govindraj Ethiraj

An Indian researcher said in a LinkedIn post recently that after 14 years of navigating the US visa system, he finally became a permanent resident there.

"Green card in hand — after 14 years, the visa clock has stopped ticking,” the Hindustan Times, which usually finds a similar story of struggle and despair every other day, quoted the researcher as saying.

The researcher in question provides all the excruciating details of his journey, including the many types of visas he had applied for and not applied for.

The other stories in the same vein, which are clearly providing SEO glory right now for the publishers, are the ones about US B1/B2 tourist-cum-business visas being denied. 

Those denied visas range from professionals to families and even government officials who land up at the interview counter with reams of paperwork only to be sent back without a US visa.

Several newspapers and websites now catalogue these stories faithfully. 

And highlighting the stories, mostly pulled from LinkedIn and Facebook confessions, is evidently useful for more eyeballs.

Obviously, because people are reading them. 

No Visas For Indians

You may not be lining up for a US visa right now, but there is something evocative about these human stories of our countrymen wanting to visit the US if only for a vacation and being denied that opportunity.

Because, among other things, they are people like us.

An unconfirmed estimate said Indian applicants experienced a refusal rate of approximately 27–30% for US B1/B2 visas in 2024.

This figure was apparently better than the previous year.

The most common reason for rejection of a US B1/B2 tourist visa is failure to prove strong ties to the home country, which falls under Section 214(b) of the US Immigration and Nationality Act. 

Which is precisely what many Indians want to do, that is, emigrate, if not now, then later.

But the US isn’t the only country rejecting visas to Indians. 

Around one in six applications to visit Europe or the Schengen region were rejected last year.

India was also the third-largest source of Schengen visa applications in 2024, submitting 1.1 million requests, according to data released by the European Commission in May this year. 

Of these, 936,748 visas were granted, while 165,266 were refused — putting India’s rejection rate at 15%.

Immigration Angst

While visiting for tourism or business is not the same as going to study or to work, the visa approval overview appears to now follow a common thread.

This is most visible in the United States, where interviewees are now subject to ‘extreme vetting’.

The Indian government revealed in March that the total number of students going abroad fell by nearly 15% in 2024 compared to the previous year. 

Canada saw the steepest decline, with numbers dropping 41%, followed by the UK at 27.7% and the US at 13%. 

Meanwhile, interest in countries like Germany, France, and Italy has grown, the report said.

There is no doubt whatsoever that all these numbers — refusals and denials — will increase in 2025 even though countries like Germany are putting out an olive branch.

We must also accept that we are seeing more visa stories in the media because of the angst around immigration in the United States, or for that matter, even the UK, Canada and Australia.

And then there is the latest H1B $100,000 fee issue, where we are all forced to feel sorry for the plight of a few hundred thousand wannabe US citizens in the guise of saving our IT services industry.

There is no doubt though, that statistically, 2025 will be worse than before. 

Peer Pressure

Much has been written about how parents are spending hundreds of thousands of dollars for their children to get undergraduate degrees with the hope of a master's degree or a job there, which in turn does not always materialise.

Students will find it tougher to study in the US now and in the coming years. 

This may be the case with Europe and other preferred countries too, but since the Schengen area has always been miserly with its visa issuances, discussion is limited.

Equally, we have to address and counsel students in their earlier years on what education options really are.

I can see around me that by the time students reach 11th grade, they are already planning a life outside.

Parents appear to have limited choice in the matter, particularly if they can somewhat afford the fees.

There is also considerable peer pressure, and it starts much earlier, including in the chosen form of school systems, like the IB or International Baccalaureate system.

Revising Foreign Degrees

The world order is changing.

Students and parents have to revisit their education preferences much earlier and not aim for the US or Canada as a primary choice.

And not rush to Germany for instance just because a window has opened up there, particularly if that was not the original plan.

The problem, of course, is that there are limited opportunities for humanities students in India. 

This is changing, but maybe not fast enough.

Many business leaders have already recognised this as an opportunity to set up high calibre universities. They have also noted that good quality humanities education in India can hold back students. And that’s already happening.

We have seen in recent years that students have preferred to go to an Ashoka University, FLAME, Krea or Jindal — there are more — than go overseas. 

The bottom line is more than parents, it is students who must realise where their near future lies — whether they want to go overseas to study now or to work later, through the H1B route.

While they should explore studying overseas, they can surely wait a few more years, as their predecessors have done. 

Maybe the rupee will be stronger by then as well.

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CORE NUMBER

Rs 69,000 crore

That’s the size of the government’s new plan, approved on September 24, to revitalise India’s shipbuilding and maritime sector.

Why It Matters: India is betting on shipyards as the next big manufacturing play — not just for jobs, but also to cut import dependence and build strategic muscle on the seas. The Rs 69,725 crore package is expected to unlock 30 lakh jobs and pull in Rs 4.5 lakh crore investments, putting India on the global shipbuilding map.

By The Numbers:

Rs 24,736 crore for the Shipbuilding Financial Assistance Scheme (till 2036), including a Rs 4,001-crore Shipbreaking Credit Note.

Rs 25,000 crore Maritime Development Fund for long-term financing, with a Rs 20,000-crore Maritime Investment Fund (49% govt stake) and Rs 5,000-crore Interest Incentivisation Fund.

Rs 19,989 crore for the Shipbuilding Development Scheme, targeting 4.5M gross tonnage capacity, new clusters, and an India Ship Tech Centre.

Flashpoint: However, the Rs 25,000-crore Maritime Development Fund, announced during the Budget this year, aimed at reviving shipbuilding and strengthening India’s global maritime standing, has seen no progress or consultations, leaving stakeholders frustrated and in the dark.

FROM THE PERIPHERY

Ethanol Runs the Show!

India’s fuel exports have surged to multi-year highs, driven by higher refinery output and a rise in ethanol blending to 20% from 12% in 2023. Gasoline exports may reach 400,000 barrels per day this year, while diesel could climb to 610,000–630,000 bpd, supported by European demand and discounted Russian crude, according to Reuters. 

Origin: Reliance and state-owned Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Limited (MRPL) lead shipments. 

Breakthrough: Separately, the government has allowed exports of Second Generation (2G) ethanol, meaning ethanol made from non-food sources like bagasse, crop residue and wood waste, provided exporters get the required sustainability certification.

X Loses Plea

Karnataka High Court has dismissed a plea by Elon Musk’s X challenging India’s content moderation rules, marking a setback for the platform in one of its largest markets, Reuters reported. X had argued in the court that India’s tightened internet regulations are unconstitutional and curb free speech by giving wide powers to government agencies and police to order takedowns.

How We Got Here? The government countered that the framework is essential to curb unlawful content and ensure accountability, pointing to support from other tech giants like Meta and Google. Justice M. Nagaprasanna ruled the petition lacked merit, stating that platforms must accept responsibility along with access.

What's Next? India has expanded its online policing since 2023, enabling officials to issue takedown requests directly through a government portal launched last October. X has not yet responded to the ruling.

AC Sales Feels the Chill.

Rating agency ICRA expects India’s room air-conditioner (RAC) industry volumes to fall by 10–15% in FY2026 to 11.0–11.5 million units, from a record 12.5–13.0 million units last year. It attributes the decline to unseasonal rains reducing summer demand. 

By the Numbers: Sales dropped 15–20% during April–July 2025 in North and Central India, leaving channel inventories at 2.5 million units. 

The Shift: But, a recovery may come in the second half, led by forecasts of a hotter summer in 2026 and the new GST cut to 18%. But, in the long-term, this sector will see strong growth because of increasing temperatures, low household penetration, urbanisation, and a growing replacement demand toward energy-efficient models.

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