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Two-Wheelers Shift Into High Gear
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Good Morning. Two-wheeler sales, often taken as a pulse of India’s demand growth and consumer sentiment, have had a few bad years. Often, the only mode of personal transportation for millions of Indian households in urban and rural areas, this segment of India’s auto sector has yet to beat its pre-pandemic records. But that’s likely to change this fiscal year. At least that’s what industry experts are hoping for.
India’s equity indices had yet another day of losses. The BSE Sensex closed at 83,627.69, falling 250.48 points or 0.30%. The NSE Nifty50 closed at 25,732.30, down by 57.95 points, or 0.22%.
In other news, is it the end of 10-minute deliveries? Meanwhile, Air India faces lawsuits in the UK over the 2025 crash.
Two-Wheeler Peak Beckons In FY26; Scooters, Premium Push Drive Demand
What?
India’s two-wheeler market is edging closer to a long-awaited milestone: reclaiming its pre-pandemic peak of 21.1 million units recorded in FY19. After nearly five years of muted demand following Covid, sales momentum has picked up decisively over the past two years.
Federation of Automobile Dealers Associations (FADA) president CS Vigneshwar told The Core, “We expect two-wheelers to touch lower double-digit growth, and record peak volumes in FY26.” He described the year as a “tale of two halves.”
Rajesh Menon, director general of the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (SIAM), said that two-wheeler sales crossed 20 million units in the January–December 2025 period, reaching 20.5 million units, a 4.9% increase year-on-year.
The industry remains hopeful of surpassing its FY19 peak volumes in FY26, he told The Core, but added that it is still a wait-and-watch situation.
Why
Several forces are converging to drive the peak volumes this year. GST reforms cutting tax on sub-350cc ICE two-wheelers to 18%, while retaining a 5% levy on EVs, have improved affordability and lifted dealer and buyer confidence.
Demand is being underpinned by improving rural and urban sentiment, strengthening replacement cycles, and the return of first-time buyers, particularly in rural markets. Scooters have emerged as a key growth engine, while premium motorcycles continue to gain share. In contrast, electric two-wheelers are stalling as the price gap with ICE models narrows and adoption challenges persist.
Elara Capital expects two-wheeler volumes to grow 9% in FY26, with the industry seen returning to its FY19 peak in the ongoing financial year.
According to Yes Securities, the volume penetration of scooters has reached a record 36% year-to-date FY26. It also noted that continued premiumisation and the decline of sub-125cc models are likely to shape the industry’s long-term trajectory.
Why It Matters
The approaching peak marks more than just a cyclical rebound—it signals a structural reset for the world’s largest two-wheeler market. Sustained growth in scooters and premium motorcycles is reshaping product strategies, investment priorities and competitive dynamics for OEMs.
FY26 may mark an inflection point, but will manufacturers get the mix of affordability, premiumisation and electrification right enough to sustain long-term growth?
India Energy Week returns for its 4th edition from 27–30 January 2026 in Goa, held under the patronage of the Ministry of Petroleum & Natural Gas and co-organised by FIPI and DMG Events.
As India advances its role in the global energy transition, the event will bring together policymakers, industry leaders and innovators to shape practical pathways toward a secure, sustainable and affordable energy future.
IEW 2026 will spotlight India’s leadership in balancing energy access with decarbonisation, while showcasing strategic investments, emerging technologies and global partnerships driving the next era of energy progress.
From Rings To Returns: How Blockchain Brings Diamonds To Portfolios
What?
It was only after the 2006 war thriller Blood Diamond that diamond buyers, companies and the public in general became aware of the conflict around how diamonds are procured.
Certification systems have improved, but legacy issues remain.
For example, diamonds continue to go through multiple intermediaries before reaching buyers, with each participant in the supply chain keeping its own version of the record.
Diamond prices are discussed privately and sometimes arbitrarily, often depending on relationships between buyers and sellers, while those outside the core trading circle remain clueless.
Another big challenge with diamonds is their benchmarking. Because of that, diamonds, despite being more valuable than most precious commodities, have little demand in formal asset markets.
But some efforts have been made to show how diamonds could be an investable product.
The ‘Diamond Standard Fund’, launched by New York-based Horizon Kinetics, is one of them, which ensures that a $1.2 trillion natural resource becomes “suitable for investors as a store of wealth, hedge, and speculative asset”.
Why Does It Matter?
The fund, though closed-end, works like an ETF. Its net asset value, or NAV, is calculated monthly, and the underlying spot commodity index, DIAMINDX, is listed on Bloomberg.
Launched in 2022, the fund does not trade individual diamonds, but combines multiple stones into fixed units that follow defined rules on quality and grading.
It holds standardised units made up of several stones that meet predefined quality and sourcing criteria.
Would this fund make sense for buyers in India?
This series is brought to you in partnership with Algorand India.
26.8 million units
That’s how many units India’s automobile industry recorded in domestic wholesales in calendar year 2025, supported by policy reforms and improving affordability, the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (SIAM) said.
Passenger vehicle sales rose 5% to 4.49 million units
Commercial vehicles grew 7.7% to 1.03 million units
Three-wheelers climbed 8.2% to 0.79 million units
Two-wheeler sales increased 4.9% to 20.5 million units, the second-highest ever in a calendar year.
The Lead: SIAM President Shailesh Chandra said 2025 was a “landmark year,” despite a subdued first half and supply-side challenges. He attributed the recovery to income tax relief, repo rate cuts and the rollout of GST 2.0, which boosted demand.
Setup: Exports also posted double-digit growth. The industry expects momentum to extend into 2026 while monitoring geopolitical risks.
Here We Go Again, Trump
US President Donald Trump issued a fresh threat on Truth Social, saying he will impose a 25% tariff on countries that trade with Iran. This threat directly implicates India, which traded goods worth over $1.6 billion with Iran in FY25. Already, many Indian goods face a 50% tariff because of India’s relationship with Russia. An additional 25% levy would further hurt exporters and industrial sectors.
Impact: Indian markets reacted negatively, as tariff fears pressured sentiment.
Backdrop: Separately, experts say Trump’s threat risks intensifying a trade dispute with China. In his previous term, he added sanctions linked to Iran that hit Chinese tech firms, but analysts believe China’s economic strength makes further tariffs unlikely.
No More Quick Deliveries?
The Gig Workers Association welcomed the rollback of the 10-minute delivery promise on quick commerce apps, calling it a recognition that extreme timelines place unsafe pressure on workers. The comments followed a CNBC report that platforms are stepping back from explicitly marketing “10-minute delivery” claims. However, the last time The Core checked on Wednesday morning, Blinkit was still showing an 8-minute delivery in some parts of Delhi, while in parts of the Mumbai suburbs it showed 19 minutes. Swiggy Instamart and Zepto apps showed estimated delivery times of around 11-12 minutes.
How We Got Here: The association said ultra-fast delivery models rely on unpaid multi-order deliveries, increasing workload and risk without higher pay. Workers cited algorithm-driven pressure through incentives, ratings and order allocation, pushing long hours and risky behaviour.
Why It Matters: While the rollback is a step forward, the group said deeper issues remain, including unstable pay, long shifts and lack of formal dialogue, and urged a permanent institutional mechanism involving platforms, workers and the government.
Air India Crash Lawsuits
Air India is facing a lawsuit in London filed by the estates and relatives of some victims of the June 2025 passenger jet crash that killed 260 people, Reuters reported. Court records show 11 claimants filed a personal injury suit at the High Court on December 18.
Overview: Air India and lawyers for the claimants did not immediately respond to requests for comment. Separately, families of four victims have sued Boeing and Honeywell in the United States, alleging faulty fuel switches caused the crash.
Backstory: The crash involved a Boeing 787-8 Dreamliner carrying 242 people — 12 crew and 230 passengers — to London’s Gatwick Airport. The aircraft lost height shortly after take-off from Ahmedabad on June 12 and burst into flames after hitting a medical college hostel. Only one passenger survived, while 19 people were killed on the ground from the impact of the crash.
India’s Russia Reset
Fossil fuel flows from Russia to India slowed in December, pushing the country to third place among buyers as refiners cut crude intake amid tightening global sanctions. India’s imports of Russian hydrocarbons fell to EUR 2.3 billion from EUR 3.3 billion in November, according to the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), with Turkiye moving into second place and China remaining the top buyer.
Context: Crude oil accounted for 78% of India’s purchases, but volumes fell 29% month-on-month to the lowest since the price-cap regime began.
Setting: The drop was led by Reliance Industries’ Jamnagar refinery, while state-run refiners cut Russian crude intake by about 15%, reducing Russia’s share of India’s imports to 25%.
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Markets Fall As Fresh Tariff Jitters Hit India
On Episode 773 of The Core Report, financial journalist Govindraj Ethiraj talks to Ajay Bagga, Market Expert as well as Uday Ved, Partner – Tax services at KNAV.
Markets fall as fresh tariff jitters hit India
The US targets Iran but it is not clear Venezuela is a win even as oil price rise
What lies beneath the choppiness in Indian markets?
An India-EU deal could be around the corner
Businesses are looking forward to a host of tax benefits in the upcoming Union Budget
Immigration raids pick up steam in the UK too
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