Trump Turns On India

Good Morning. US president Donald Trump suddenly dislikes India very much. He called India’s protectionist policies obnoxious and its economy dead, all while entering a pact with Pakistan. While India maintains that “national interest” is its top priority, India’s trade ties with the US are entering choppy waters. How far will Trump go, and what will India tolerate?

In other news, India’s largest carmaker, Maruti, has diversification plans. Meanwhile, India’s oil industry is feeling the tariff pinch.

JANUS VIEW

India Gets Tariffs, Pakistan Gets Oil As Trump Deals With Epstein Heat

US president Donald Trump loves to have the last word. Besides, of course, the first word, the middle word and every other word in-between. Trump’s post on his social media site, Truth Social, said he is levying a tariff of 25% on India, as well as an unspecified penal levy for buying Russian oil and weapons.

There is the possibility that Trump could swallow a portion of the 25% tariff he has announced, and, in his last word on the subject, settle for a lower rate, such as the 15% he has imposed on the European Union, Japan and South Korea.

India can live with tariffs, whatever the level. But it would be totally unacceptable to let the US or any other power dictate to us on who we should buy weapons from and what kind. Trump’s animus against India was not spent with the declaration of high regular and penal tariffs.

After finalising a trade deal with Pakistan, whose army chief had been hosted at the White House a month ago, after Operation Sindoor, Trump made another post on Truth Social, saying the US would help Pakistan develop its huge oil reserves, and perhaps Pakistan would start selling oil to India.

He prefaced this jibe with “I don't care what India does with Russia. They can take their dead economies down together, for all I care.” Does he mean it? At some point, he will deign to clarify the matter. Provided he does not get caught up in the Epstein maelstrom.

Trump’s Epstein Nightmare

Jeffrey Epstein, master procurer of underage girls for a rich clientele, had been a friend of Trump’s. After being found out, prosecuted, and jailed, Epstein had died, allegedly by suicide, although some crucial minutes of jail CCTV footage had mysteriously gone missing to create uncertainty about how precisely he died.

During his election campaign, Trump had promised to declassify the Epstein files and make them public. Trump has not fulfilled this election promise. After a Wall Street Journal story that said Trump had presented Epstein with a bawdy figure that Trump had sketched on his 50th birthday, and that Trump figures in the Epstein files,

Trump has said that some parts of the Epstein files would be released. He has also sued the Wall Street Journal and its owner, Rupert Murdoch.

Trump has been so rattled by the Epstein allegation that he has tried to divert public attention, linking Barack Obama to Russian interference in his 2016 election, and threatening to arrest Obama.

The high drama over tariffs in the run-up to his August 1 deadline for finalising the tariffs also helps to keep Epstein out of the headlines.

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CORE NUMBER

78,000 hectares

That’s how much forest land the Centre has approved for non‑forest purposes — such as infrastructure (roads, irrigation works, transmission lines), mining, power projects, defence installations, and other industrial uses, said Union minister Kirti Vardhan Singh in the Rajya Sabha. This data covers four years, specifically from April 1, 2021 and March 31, 2025.

🌳 State-wise breakdown:

• Madhya Pradesh: 17,393.65 hectares

• Odisha: 11,033.08 hectares

• Arunachal Pradesh: 6561.47 hectares

• Uttar Pradesh with 5480.43 hectares

• Chhattisgarh with 4,092.01 hectares

The above are the top five states. Delhi’s diverted forest land was one of the lowest, at 118.59 hectares. Legally, the government has to do compensatory afforestation and provide payment of present value to tribal occupants, if any. Critics argue that this government hasn’t always done so. Moreover, they say that the government’s push toward industrialisation comes at the steep expense of India’s forests and tribal livelihoods.

FROM THE PERIPHERY

Goyal Responds to Tariffs: Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal told the Lok Sabha on Thursday that India was closely assessing the impact of the 25% US tariff on Indian goods, assuring that all steps will be taken to safeguard national interest. He said consultations with exporters, MSMEs, and industry bodies are underway. India and the US began talks for a balanced bilateral trade agreement in March 2025.

Implications: Goyal reiterated that India doesn’t rush into trade deals under pressure and prioritises protecting its economic sovereignty. The tariffs—along with an additional “penalty” for India’s continued oil and defence ties with Russia—come amid ongoing global tensions.

Backdrop: Trump’s tough talk on India isn’t new. As far back as 2015, he criticised India’s trade barriers and accused the country of treating the US unfairly. Trump has earlier said that India imposes “high tariffs and obnoxious trade restrictions,” while continuing close ties with Moscow during the Ukraine conflict.

Trump Tariffs Shake Refiners: Indian oil refiners are scrambling after US President Trump imposed a 25% tariff on Indian goods, citing their continued imports of Russian crude. Trump accused Indian refiners of “funding the war” by buying oil from Moscow, calling it unacceptable during the Ukraine conflict. Already reeling from an EU move to block diesel exports made from Russian oil, refiners now face rising costs, supply uncertainty, and margin pressures.

Next Steps: Many Indian refiners are rushing to source alternative crude from the Middle East and Africa, issuing unusually early tenders for September-October delivery, The Economic Times reported. State-run firms like Indian Oil and Bharat Petroleum are avoiding fresh Russian cargoes amid geopolitical risks.

Implications: With no clarity on Trump’s additional penalty, refiners are turning to New Delhi for urgent guidance.

Maruti Leans into Emerging Tech. On July 31, 2025, Maruti Suzuki’s board approved changes to its Memorandum of Association, allowing the company to move beyond manufacturing cars. Maruti will now also invest in electric vehicle charging, clean energy, and drones, in addition to expanding into used-car sales, recycling, and carbon-credit monetisation.

By the Numbers: Currently, Maruti commands a 41% share in the passenger car segment in the country, making it India’s largest seller. But, Tata leads in the EV segment, followed by MG. 

What This Means Going Forward: Maruti’s recent changes reflect a shift toward emerging mobility and sustainable tech ventures.

Apple Continues To Bet On India: Despite President Trump’s 25% tariffs on Indian goods, Apple’s iPhone manufacturing in India is unlikely to slow. Nearly all $3.2 billion worth of iPhones exported by Foxconn from India between March and May were shipped to the US, making India central to Apple’s diversification away from China.

By the Numbers: Between April and June, 71% of iPhones sold in the US were made in India, up from 31% a year earlier. Analysts say India remains cost-competitive due to lower wages, local sourcing, and government incentives.

What’s Next? Trump has criticised Apple’s India move, but as per The Economic Times report, experts say it’s “business as usual” given the company’s long-term plans and the resilience of its supply chain. Disruptions are unlikely ahead of new iPhone launches.

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PODCAST

On Episode 644 of The Core Report, financial journalist Govindraj Ethiraj talks to Arvind Chari, Chief Investment Strategist at Q India UK as well as Ajay Srivastava, Founder at Global Trade Research Initiative.

• US latest tariff threats point to failure in negotiations

• Who will get most hurt by the higher tariffs

• India may be suspending oil purchases from Russia for now

• Air passenger growth slows in June, load factor falls

👥 THE TEAM

✍️ Zinal Dedhia, Salman SH, Kudrat Wadhwa | ✂️ Rohini Chatterji | 🎧 Joshua Thomas