By Zinal Dedhia

What? 

At the start of 2026, the global freight industry finds itself in a familiar but uneasy position of playing the waiting game. After a year of sharp swings driven by geopolitics, trade policy shocks and supply-chain rerouting, exporters and logistics firms are entering the new year with fewer convictions and more contingency plans.

For Indian exporters in particular, freight rates have become less a cost variable and more a strategic risk — one shaped by tariffs, trade agreements and geopolitical decisions made far beyond shipping lanes.

“It’s very difficult to predict freight at this point. On one hand, we are seeing that the situation in the Red Sea is easing out, which has softened freight. But we are also looking at improvement in the global economy to support demand. If that happens, the freight rate may again move up,” Ajay Sahai, director general and CEO of Federation of Indian Export Organisations (FIEO), told The Core.

Why?

The freight market enters 2026 after a bruising year. In 2025, exporters navigated diversions around the Red Sea, sudden airspace restrictions, tariff escalations and uneven consumer demand across major economies.

Capacity surged even as trade volumes lagged, creating a mismatch that pushed rates down on some routes while keeping others artificially elevated.

“From an ocean freight perspective, rates are steadily declining as the Red Sea is expected to reopen, adding capacity. Air freight typically follows the same trend with a lag of about one to one-and-a-half months, so rates could ease in the first quarter,” Ruby Abidi, director of air freight at Cargo Partner, told The Core.

What's Next?

The biggest factor that looms large over Indian exporters this year is US trade policy. With Washington signalling a tougher tariff stance, including the possibility of higher import duties on select labour-intensive goods, stricter enforcement of trade remedies such as anti-dumping measures, and a greater willingness to use tariffs as a negotiating tool, exporters said predictability has eroded, complicating pricing, contracts and logistics planning.

“I think 2026 is looking much brighter — except to the US. The US is very uncertain as yet, because now he’s talking about increasing tariffs even more. The current tariff rates are not sustainable. If they continue, our apparel exports are definitely going to be impacted,” Rahul Mehta, Chief Mentor of the Clothing Manufacturers Association of India (CMAI), told The Core.

So as freight rates soften but political risk hardens, can Indian exporters really plan for 2026—or are they bracing for the next shock?

A 3,000-km Expansion Pushes GAIL’s Pipeline Network Into A New Phase

By Govindraj Ethiraj

GAIL, India's largest natural gas company, has seen significant pipeline expansions during the course of the year 2025, and more are on the cards.

"A great part of the country is now covered with our natural gas network. So if I can be precise in the answer, then our Srikakula-Mangul pipeline was gasified sometime back and now we are working on the spur lines to feed certain industries," Sandeep Gupta, Chairman & MD, GAIL, told The Core during a conversation which was part of the India Energy Week.

Among the projects that are near completion are the Mumbai-Nagpur-Jawalpur-Jhalsuguda pipeline, which is a long pipeline serving Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh and Odisha and the Jagdishpur-Bokaro-Dhamra-Haldia pipeline, which is complete except for the Kolkata-Haldia and Dhamra-Haldia sections.

"I think the pipelines which are, which have been completed and which are getting commissioned is roughly about 3000 kilometres, and that is on top of about, say, about 16,000, 17,000 kilometres. So that is the proportion," Gupta said.

The AI Promise

During the past year, GAIL, like several other companies in different sectors, has also turned its attention to artificial intelligence to train its people because it believes there are several use cases.

"AI is one technology where I'm very excited about. So, we are training all our 5000 employees, 5000 plus employees on AI, the first phase of which is already over. So, we ultimately target to make 50 to 75 AI champions in the company, who will then drive the various projects using the AI in their own spheres of work. So, I believe AI is very, very exciting," Gupta said.

This series is brought to you in partnership with India Energy Week 2026. Get your delegate passes here.

Rs 3.56 lakh crore

That’s how much India’s auto component industry grew—up 6.8% year-on-year in the first half of FY26—supported by stable domestic demand, a resilient aftermarket, and continued investments in localisation and capacity expansion, the Automotive Component Manufacturers Association (ACMA) said.

Overview: Exports rose 9.3% to $12.1 billion, while imports increased 12.5% to $12.3 billion, resulting in a trade deficit of $180 million. The US and Germany remained key export destinations, while China and Japan were the largest sources of imports.

Turning Point: Exports to the US were flat at about $3.64 billion in H1 FY26, with the impact of higher tariffs expected to show in the second half, even as GST cuts support domestic demand. ACMA President Vikrampati Singhania said new US contracts are in limbo, as sweeping tariffs have made companies in the US and the NAFTA region hesitant to award fresh projects to Indian suppliers.

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