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Swadeshi Goods, Swadeshi Techies
Good Morning. The theme of the day is Swadeshi or homegrown. Prime Minister Narendra Modi urged Indians to go for local-products in his “Bachat Utsav” address. On the other side of the globe, the US President Donald Trump hiked the visa fees substantially. Looks like more techies will stay home and hopefully buy more.
In other news, Indian stock markets have a lot at stake. As many as 22 public issues will open this week, and hope to survive yet another US shock. Meanwhile, state-owned power generator NTPC is looking to secure fuel abroad before making inroads into nuclear power generation.
THE TAKE
A Shiver Not A Shock: Indian IT Sector Will Survive The Visa Fee Hit
The year 2000 or Y2K as it is fondly remembered, was a turning point for the Indian information technology (IT) services industry.
A global scare that computers would freeze up on the night of December 31, 1999 triggered waves of anticipatory business for Indian IT companies. As January 1, 2000 came and went, the computers transitioned without any incident. No planes fell out of the sky, as some had warned.
The Indian IT sector proved its mettle in keeping systems for critical functions across the world running, from banking to telecom to retail. Whether anything would have happened at all when the computer clocks transitioned, we would never know. But Indian IT got a solid foot into the global IT services market.
Soon, questions were asked about what was next. Would Indian IT be able to sustain the momentum that Y2K created? What is the future for TCS and Infosys? Not that it would cease to exist, but could the industry grow like it had so far, and stay relevant?
The $224 billion industry faced several near-death moments, including the global financial crisis in 2008 and the shift to digital a few years ago. The industry survived and grew.
To the point that along with BPO, according to some estimates, India controls more than 90% of the global outsourcing market.
Though the ground has shifted in recent years.
Many IT majors have been reporting consistent slowing in both topline and headcount.
At one level, this is not so surprising given the high base. TCS employs over 600,000 people and is the country’s largest private sector employer. And there is artificial intelligence (AI) which will surely hit headcount further as automation takes over more manual jobs and processes, including coding.
Which brings us to the latest H1B guidelines announced over the weekend that will force companies to pay up to $100,000 for every fresh H1B visa issued. There is no doubt that it will put brakes on Indian IT professionals’ ability to work with clients onshore in the US. It will also make executing projects tougher.
But Indian IT has had to reckon with resistance to engineers being shipped from India for several years.
Large Indian IT companies have recognised that as responsible global multinationals they must grow with local talent and also endear themselves to the communities they work in.
This has been happening for some time now.
While there may not have been specific intelligence on the $100,000 visa rule, every Indian tech CEO, including many I have spoken to, has been bracing for some version of this crackdown for several years now.
The other trend to note is of global capability centres or GCCs. There are over 1,700 GCCs operating in India, or captive centres for global multinationals. Many multinationals who run GCCs today actually started out working with large Indian IT companies and then switched to setting up their own captive centres.
A few weeks before Trump first announced his reciprocal tariffs in April this year, McDonalds, a brand that the President of the United States has selflessly promoted, announced a 2,000-seater GCC operation in Hyderabad.
No doubt, some Indian engineers will be disappointed as their pathways to migrate to the United States shrink.
But their fortunes or misfortunes now will have little bearing on India’s ability to source and grow technology-led businesses from world over. Particularly as more opportunities open up at home, including with the GCCs.
Unlike Trump’s other tariff shocks, this is one that India’s IT industry has been prepared for some time now.
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CORE NUMBER
Rs 5,000 crore
That’s how much 22 initial public offerings (IPOs) intend to raise this week. Eight mainboard IPOs and 14 small and medium enterprises (SME) IPOs will test the stock market’s resilience in a single week. Following the bumper 104-time subscription of Urban Company, many companies are opening their public issues for subscription during the Dusshera week.
Here is the issue size of mainboard IPOs:
Seshaasai Technologies: Rs 813 crore
Anand Rathi Share & Stock Broking: Rs 745 crore
Atlanta Electricals: Rs 688 crore.
Epack Prefab Technologies: Rs 504 crore
Solarworld Energy Solutions: Rs 490 crore
Jaro Institute of Technology: Rs 450 crore
Ganesh Consumer Products: Rs 409 crore
Jinkushal Industries: Rs 116 crore
SME IPOs like Solves Edibles, True Colors, Aptus Pharma and Justo Realfintech will also open for subscription. Analysts expect that the depth provided by domestic institutional investors (DIIs) and selective interest from foreign institutional investors (FIIs) is expected to drive the primary markets.
FROM THE PERIPHERY
‘Double Bonanza For Middle Class’
Prime Minister Narendra Modi ushered in cuts in Goods and Services Tax (GST), calling it the ‘Bachat Utsav’. The GST 2.0 was announced in early September, cutting taxes on 375 items, ushering in the latest festival season. The poor, middle class, neo-middle class, youth, farmers, women, shopkeepers, traders, and entrepreneurs will benefit from it, the PM added.
Pivot: Modi said that as many as 25 crore people emerged from poverty, and called them the neo-middle class. They, along with India’s middle class, were given a double bonanza as the government, he added. The government gave income tax relief to those earning less than Rs 12 lakh per annum in the budget earlier.
Implications: The new tax reform aims to make goods cheaper, encourage industry and strengthen the economy, he said in a televised address. He also urged the citizens to give preference to Indian-made goods. The country’s prosperity will depend on swadeshi mantra, said the PM as the country is under the cloud of 50% tariffs slapped by the US along with a fresh salvo of visa fee hike.
NTPC Eyes Uranium Overseas
TState-owned thermal power generator NTPC is looking to acquire uranium assets overseas, a company official told PTI. Its board has already approved a draft memorandum of understanding (MoU) with Uranium Corporation of India for due diligence of assets abroad, the official added.
The Backstory: The thermal power producer, which has been diversifying into clean energy, is expected to soon enter the nuclear power sector. In a joint venture with Nuclear Power Corporation of India, it’s expected to set up a plant in Rajasthan. It’s also collaborating with tech providers as well as state governments to set up nuclear power projects individually.
Setup: The move to secure uranium assets is crucial as the metal is used to fuel power nuclear projects. The government aims to set up as much as 100 gigawatts of nuclear power by 2047. But as of FY25 end, only 2% of India’s installed energy capacity is nuclear power.
Maxis Gets Summons In Aircel Case
Malaysian telecom giant Maxis was issued fresh summons by a special court in Delhi, on the request of Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI). This relates to an Foreign Investment Promotional Board (FIPB) clearance given to its subsidiary, to acquire Indian telecom company Aircel in 2006.
How We Got Here: The CBI has filed chargesheets on this issue on former telecom minister Dayanidhi Maran amongst others in 2014, but they were discharged in 2018. It filed another chargesheet against the former Finance Minister P Chidambaram, which is still before the special court. The FIPB clearance was given in his tenure, and Maxis went on to acquire 73.9% equity of Aircel.
Flashpoint: The agency alleges that Chidambaram and other officials showed the actual foreign direct investment (FDI) inflow via the deal as Rs 180 crore while it was Rs 3,650 crore. They also allege that the former FM and his son, Karti P Chidambaram received quid pro quo for the same. Bribes to the tune of Rs 26 lakh and Rs 87 lakh were taken through two companies linked to Karti Chidambaram, who is now a member of the parliament.
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