Reality Of Rallies

Good Morning. The haze of stock market investment is wound in a mirage of numbers and data of returns. The truth lies in being invested in its ‘best days’, and we barely have one of these days a year. And it’s advisors not apps that bring us closer to reality.

In other news, the corporate loan book of banks is showing signs of revival after a prolonged phase of softness. Meanwhile, private equity and venture capital investments are buzzing in October but exits and real estate deals slow down.

THE TAKE

The Stock Market Is Hiding The Truth From You

Here is a data point that should stop every amateur day trader cold.

If you had invested in the Indian stock market over the last 40 years but missed just the 10 best days of movement, your returns would be famously sub-optimal. 

But the math gets even more ruthless. 

If you missed out on the 30 best days—less than one day per year on average—you would have missed out on 90% of the total returns.

I was given this stark reality check recently by Devina Mehra, the founder of First Global. 

The Risk Of Not Being Invested

It encapsulates the asymmetry of wealth creation. While we obsess over the risk of being invested in the market—the crashes, the corrections, the panic—we rarely calculate the risk of not being invested.

This statistic leads to an uncomfortable truth for the millions of retail investors currently glued to their trading apps. You cannot simply dabble in the markets and expect them to do your bidding. 

As Mehra put it to me, “The markets have zero interest in the price at which you bought your shares.”

The Mirage Of Prosperity

Yet, looking at the recent headlines, you would be forgiven for thinking otherwise. Last week, the BSE Sensex and NSE Nifty hit record highs. The numbers on the screen suggest a boom. But these record highs are concealing more than they reveal.

This is, statistically, one of the narrowest rallies we have ever seen. Beneath the headline numbers, the carnage is severe. Since the previous peak in September 2024—some 14 months ago—very few individual investors have actually made money. The index is being propped up by a handful of heavyweights while the broader market languishes. It is a mirage of prosperity.

As a recent ET article pointed out, almost half of Nifty50 stocks haven't even touched their all-time highs this year, exposing a dangerously narrow rally propped up by a handful of largecap heavyweights.

And let’s look at the big names. 

TCS is down 23%. Wipro, Tech Mahindra, Power Grid, Infosys, IndusInd Bank, HCL Tech, and Dr Reddy's are all stuck in double-digit losses for 2025— even as the Sensex and Nifty post 10% gains this calendar year.

Altogether, 23 Nifty stocks are languishing at least 10% below their all-time highs. 

This brings us to the central paradox of modern investing. If the math proves that timing the market is next to impossible; and missing a handful of days can destroy your compounding, why do we listen to the cacophony of self-styled gurus who relentlessly predict the next big swing?

Greed Is Good: Is It?

The answer lies in the collision of technology and ancient human greed.

In the early 1990s, India saw the rise of Harshad Mehta, a stockbroker who assumed the role of a Pied Piper, leading both small and large investors into a frenzy that ended in ruin for most. 

Mehta was the proto-influencer. He ruled the narrative before the internet, before Twitter, or the gamification of finance.

Today, the spirit of Mehta has been fractured and multiplied across thousands of YouTube channels and Telegram groups. 

Financial advice now flows freely from unqualified individuals whose primary skill is not equity research, but storytelling. They are aided by brokerages that have built admirable, slick mobile apps designed to make losing your life savings feel like a video game.

Advisors Versus Apps 

Investing is not a game. It is a discipline of emotional regulation. This is why the unglamorous Mutual Fund manager remains relevant. Their job is not to be a hero, but to be a robot: to research themes, to buy without euphoria, and sell without panic.

Indian investors have, to their credit, shown a degree of collective wisdom by pouring savings into Mutual Funds via Systematic Investment Plans (SIPs). This steady drip of capital has shown resilience. But one has to wonder if this discipline will hold when the narrative turns sour, or if the temptation to ‘time’ the exit will take over.

The market is beckoning with record highs, usually the time when a fresh crop of investors jump in. 

But unless you possess the professional fortitude to endure the boredom of long-term holding, or the skill to navigate a market that is rising in name only, you are walking into a trap.

As we look toward a year where indices may hit a few more milestones, remember the math. The market doesn't care about you. And, if you are taking your cues from an app rather than an advisor, you aren't investing—you're just gambling on the hope that you won't miss those 30 crucial days.

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CORE NUMBER

Rs 3,765 crore

That’s how much foreign investors pulled out of Indian equities in November, after a short period of buying. 

Here is how net flows have moved in recent months:
• October 2025 saw net inflows of Rs 14,610 crore
• September 2025 saw net outflows of Rs 23,885 crore
• August 2025 saw net outflows of Rs 34,990 crore
• July 2025 saw net outflows of Rs 17,700 crore

Total foreign portfolio investment (FPI) outflows for 2025 now stand at Rs 1.43 lakh crore.

Analysts link this selling to an uncertain US Federal Reserve, a strong US dollar and weak risk appetite in emerging markets. Himanshu Srivastava of Morningstar Investment Research India told Business Standard that geopolitical tensions and volatile crude prices have also pushed investors to retreat.

Some experts remain hopeful. VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Investments, said there is still no clear evidence of a lasting trend reversal. He said record highs in the Nifty and Sensex along with stronger corporate earnings have supported market sentiment.

FROM THE PERIPHERY

SBI Breaks Dry Spell

SBI has approved Rs 7 lakh crore in corporate loans, Chairman C S Setty told PTI. He said corporate credit grew 7.1% in Q2 FY25, ending a prolonged period of weak demand. 

Future: Setty expects corporate-loan growth to pick up to double digits over the next two quarters, supported by sanctioned working-capital limits, term-loan requests, and project-finance proposals already in the bank’s pipeline.

Outcome: SBI’s leadership suggests that improving economic activity and higher working-capital utilisation are contributing to renewed demand for bank credit.

Export Biz Faces Climate Risk: BCG

India’s export-driven businesses in aluminium, iron and steel are exposed to risk due to climate inaction, notes Boston Consulting Group (BCG). These sectors which face international regulatory shocks; and inaction can threaten their profits, operations and long-term viability, adds the consulting firm.

By The Numbers: As much as 4.5% of India's GDP by 2030 is at massive risk of erosion due to climate-induced extreme events, BCG managing director and senior partner, Asia Pacific leader, climate & sustainability, Sumit Gupta, told PTI. Such challenges could cost India between 6.4% to over 10% of its national income by the end of the century.

Outcome: Physical infrastructure assets are wiped off, labour hours are lost, due to climate events, and productivity is impacted. There can also be indefinite delay in project completion and declining investment efficiency in high climate risk regions, he added.

NCLAT Rejects Voltas Insolvency Plea

National Company Law Appellate Tribunal (NCLAT) rejected a plea by an operational creditor, seeking to initiate insolvency proceedings against Voltas. The tribunal upheld a former verdict by National Company Law Appellate Tribunal (NCLT) which rejected it on the grounds of an existing dispute.

Backstory: Air Wave Technocrafts, the petitioner, was engaged by Voltas to provide operation and maintenance support. They said in the petition that Voltas failed to discharge its payment obligations, and disputed the liability and raised the issue of limitation.

Timeline: Air Wave claimed a total debt of Rs 1.2 crore, and later filed a Section 9 application to initiate Corporate Insolvency Resolution Process against Voltas before NCLT in August 2024, which was dismissed on May 2025. This was subsequently challenged before the NCLAT.

Deal Street Buzzes In Oct

Private equity and venture capital (PE/VC) investments touched $5.3 billion in October 2025 marking a 9% YoY rise, according to EY-IVCA roundup. Pureplay PE/VC investments hit a 13-month high of $5 billion, which is an 81% increase over October 2024. This is in spite of a sharp 86% fall in real estate and infrastructure investments.

Overview:  As per EY, the broader PE-VC landscape is entering an active phase. Private Investments In Public Equity (PIPE) deals was the most dominant deal category. It surged nearly 10-fold to $2.1 billion. The next busiest category was startup investments at $2 billion. Credit investments dropped 90% in the same period.

Fast Facts: Exits however dropped sharply by 43% YoY to $640 million in October 2025. It was also significantly lower than $2.6 billion recorded in September of the current calendar year.

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