New Markets, Tougher Choices And The Search For Returns

Good morning.

This week, Ajit Dayal examines why foreign investors remain cautious about India, while Jitendra Gohil explains why a stronger economy may not necessarily translate into higher corporate earnings. Swarup Mohanty makes the case for looking beyond short-term market returns and adopting more balanced investment strategies.

Elsewhere, Ajay Srivastava questions the concessions India may have to make to secure a US trade deal. Azim Lalani and Keerat Grewal explore the challenges of monetising India's microdrama boom.

The common thread: growth creates opportunity, but converting it into lasting value requires difficult choices.

WEEKEND EDITION

Can India Win Back The Confidence Of Global Investors?

Why are foreign investors pulling money out of India despite its promising economic prospects?

In this episode of Weekend Edition, Govindraj Ethiraj speaks with Ajit Dayal of Quantum Advisors Private Limited about what is driving foreign capital away from Indian equities and what could restore investor confidence.

While domestic investors have helped support the market, Dayal explains how high valuations, capital gains taxation and rupee depreciation have made Indian equities less attractive to foreign investors, particularly when other markets offer competitive returns.

Yet, economic growth does not guarantee strong market performance. Dayal also highlights corporate governance concerns, estimating that 20–30% of major Indian indices may be unsuitable for investment under his firm's criteria.

Key Insight

India's growth potential alone cannot attract global capital. Predictable taxation, currency policy and strong corporate governance are equally important to foreign investors.

LEGACY FORWARD

The Changing Role Of Family Business Leaders

How does a century-old family business adapt to new markets while preserving the foundations on which it was built?

In this premiere episode of Legacy Forward, Govindraj Ethiraj speaks with Arjun Chowgule of the Chowgule Group at the company's shipyard in Goa about generational succession, business transformation and the responsibilities of leading a family-owned enterprise.

Founded in 1916, the group evolved from a roofing tile business into iron ore mining, shipping and shipbuilding. Arjun explains how the company expanded into European markets, secured contracts for technologically advanced hybrid vessels and revived a shipyard in Mangalore following its acquisition in 2023.

Reflecting on his family's restructuring in 2021, Chowgule distinguishes between ownership as a set of rights and stewardship as a responsibility towards employees, stakeholders and future generations.

SPECIAL EDITIONS

Why India's Next Growth Winners May Be Harder To Find

Can India's next phase of growth create opportunities beyond its traditional market leaders?

In this episode of Special Edition, Govindraj Ethiraj speaks with Jitendra Gohil of Bajaj Alternate Asset Management Limited about how geopolitical shifts, government incentives and corporate investment strategies are reshaping India's equity markets.

Gohil highlights emerging opportunities in shipbuilding, electronics, semiconductors and manufacturing supply chains, supported by infrastructure spending and improving access to capital. He explains why investors may need to look beyond established companies and benchmark indices.

Yet, faster economic growth may not translate into stronger corporate earnings. As startups and smaller businesses challenge established players, intensifying competition could put pressure on profitability.

Key Insight

Government incentives and easier access to capital may drive investment, but rising competition could make it harder for companies to turn economic growth into sustained profits.

Is Your Investment Portfolio Built For The Long Run?

Should investors rethink their mutual fund investments after two years of disappointing returns?

In this episode of Special Edition, Govindraj Ethiraj speaks with Swarup Mohanty of Mirae Asset Investment Managers (INDIA) about changing market valuations, investor behaviour and long-term financial goals.

Mohanty explains that despite weak equity returns, corporate earnings and balance sheets have strengthened, while valuations have become more reasonable. He also sees emerging opportunities across manufacturing, healthcare, financial services and consumption.

Yet, chasing past returns can expose investors to changing market conditions. Rather than relying solely on equities or reacting to short-term performance, Mohanty emphasises combining equity, debt and commodities based on individual financial goals.

Key Insight

Investors should prioritise long-term financial goals over chasing returns, using a diversified portfolio to manage risk and achieve their objectives.

BUREAU BYTES

Why Authentication Cannot Stop Every Scam

How can banks protect customers when fraudulent transactions are increasingly authorised by the victims themselves?

Prashant Mehra of HDFC Bank explains how financial fraud is evolving from targeting banks directly to manipulating customers through social engineering, impersonation and AI-enabled scams. Banks are responding by combining behavioural monitoring with conventional authentication to identify transactions that deviate from customers' usual patterns.

Yet, digital safeguards are only part of the response. Mehra describes how HDFC Bank uses branch-level interventions to identify customers under pressure, particularly senior citizens targeted by digital arrest scams. He also explains how the national cybercrime reporting network helps banks trace and block funds following fraudulent transfers.

Key Insight

Effective prevention depends on institutions sharing risk intelligence and intervening before suspicious transactions are completed.

THE MEDIA ROOM

Can Microdramas Turn Free Viewers Into Paying Customers?

India's microdrama audience has reached an estimated 110 million. But how many viewers are willing to pay?

In this episode of The Media Room, Vanita Kohli-Khandekar speaks with Azim Lalani of BULLET Microdrama and Trinetra AI, and Keerat Grewal of Ormax Media Pvt. Ltd about the growth and economics of short-form entertainment.

Grewal explains how social media algorithms are attracting viewers, particularly women and audiences in smaller towns. Lalani discusses how platforms use cliffhangers and subscriptions to generate revenue, while AI reduces production costs and enables new storytelling formats.

Yet, 72% of surveyed viewers have never paid for microdramas. High customer acquisition costs, weak retention and uncertain profitability remain major challenges.

Key Insight

Social media has helped microdrama platforms reach millions, but building their brands and retaining paying customers remains a challenge.

HOW INDIA’S ECONOMY WORKS

Is India Better Off Without A US Trade Deal?

What is the value of a trade deal if it cannot guarantee lower tariffs or greater certainty for exporters?

In this episode of How India's Economy Works, Puja Mehra speaks with Ajay Srivastava of the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) about the uncertain India-US trade negotiations and their economic implications.

Srivastava explains how shifting US tariff policies have complicated negotiations, while American demands for agricultural market access, large-scale purchases of US goods and restrictions linked to Russian oil raise concerns about India's strategic autonomy.

Yet, with the US remaining India's largest export destination, prolonged uncertainty comes at a cost. Srivastava cautions against exchanging permanent concessions for temporary tariff relief without guarantees against future restrictions.

Why This Matters

With the US accounting for roughly 20% of India's exports, the stakes are high. India must secure predictable market access without compromising its flexibility on trade, energy purchases and economic policy.

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