Mythos & India’s AI Autonomy

The Mythos Factor: Why India Must Build Its Own Frontier AI

Anthropic's latest release, Mythos, is not just another AI model. It is a model-cum-agent, capable of autonomously executing decisions, not merely responding to prompts, with advanced capabilities in spotting bugs and vulnerabilities in global software infrastructure.

The risks are significant enough that Anthropic has restricted access to just 40 entities worldwide, 39 of them American, with Britain's AI Safety Institute the sole exception.

For India, the message is stark. Mythos is effectively a weapon of mass destruction in digital form, one that sits firmly within American jurisdiction. The US already restricts sales of advanced NVIDIA chips and ASML's chip-making machinery to foreign entities. There is no reason it cannot do the same with frontier AI.

India's tech leaders who advocate building applications on top of foreign foundation models must reckon with this reality: strategic dependence on another nation's AI is strategic vulnerability, plain and simple.

India must build its own frontier models, and given the private sector's abysmal R&D spending, only the government can lead this charge.

Globalisation Refuses to Die

For all of President Trump's efforts to fracture global trade and dethrone the dollar, economic interdependence is proving stubbornly resilient. Oil prices zooming in the Persian Gulf raise pump prices in Kansas. A Fed hesitant to cut rates sends Asian stock markets tumbling. Russian fertiliser sales to Southeast Asia quietly undermine Ukraine-related sanctions. The world remains deeply, irreversibly connected.

The dollar's dominance, however, is quietly eroding, its share of global foreign exchange reserves has slipped from 65% in 2017 to 57% by end-2025. Trump's push for a US current account surplus, if successful, would paradoxically accelerate this decline by reducing the dollar-denominated assets the rest of the world needs to hold.

Globalisation may have survived the Trump shock, but the architecture underneath it is shifting.

India's Energy Reckoning

The Strait of Hormuz blockade has exposed India's energy vulnerabilities with uncomfortable clarity. LPG shortages, surging fertiliser costs, and constrained natural gas supplies are not temporary inconveniences, they are structural warnings. GST concessions on induction stoves will not solve an infrastructure problem rooted in inadequate building wiring and grid capacity.

India must think bigger: coal gasification for cleaner baseload power, accelerated green hydrogen production, and serious investment in energy storage. Battery storage dependency on China is a strategic risk; green hydrogen is the more viable path.

A crisis is an opportunity for reform. The question is whether the government will seize it.

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4.4 crore

That’s how many new-to-credit borrowers entered India’s formal lending market in the 12 months ending February 2026, according to a report by credit bureau CRIF High Mark.

By the Numbers: New-to-credit (NTC) borrowers grew from 3.6 crore five years ago at a CAGR of 5.1%. They now represent 17.8% of total loan originations, down from 23.5%, as lenders tighten norms and prioritise portfolio quality.

NBFCs dominate with over 60% share of NTC accounts. Consumer durable loans lead as the top entry product (~32%), followed by gold and two-wheeler loans. These three categories make up nearly 60% of first-time borrowings.

The Scoop: Women’s participation surged from 33% to 41%. Borrowers aged 26-35 drive most consumer durable, gold, and business loans, while those 25 and under lead in personal and two-wheeler loans. Over 50% of NTC originations come from beyond the top 100 cities.

Encouragingly, nearly 67% of these first-time borrowers move to low or very low-risk categories within one year. The report underscores NTC’s vital role in financial inclusion and sustainable credit growth when lenders pick the right products and segments.

War, Oil, No End

The Strait of Hormuz remains shut two months into the war, choking 20% of global oil and gas supplies with no resolution in sight. Brent crude briefly spiked above $126 a barrel, its highest since Russia's Ukraine invasion, before slipping back to $113, as reports emerged of fresh US military strike plans on Iran, Reuters reported.

With over 80% of Hormuz-bound energy heading east, Asia reportedly faces the sharpest exposure to a shock that analysts are comparing to the oil crisis of 1970s.

The Lead: India is feeling the pressure. The rupee is drifting near its all-time low of 95.21 per dollar, weighed down by oil-related dollar buying adding $12-13 billion monthly to the import bill. The RBI's short-dollar forward book has ballooned to a record $104 billion in March, reflecting the central bank's aggressive efforts to defend the currency.

Critical Moment: The structural damage runs deeper. Crisil notes India's oil trade deficit has been rising even as crude prices fell before the current spike, import growth outpacing exports. With India projected to be the largest contributor to global oil demand growth through 2030, and the US war in Iran already costing $25 billion, the road to resolution looks long and expensive.

HUL Profit Meets Pressure

Hindustan Unilever Ltd said it is relying on cost cuts and price hikes to counter commodity and currency volatility stemming from the Middle East war, even as it reported an 18% jump in quarterly profit, according to a Reuters report.

Context: The company’s stronger profit performance was overshadowed by concerns around rising costs and market reaction, with shares falling nearly 3% after results and underperforming in a weaker broader market.

Rising raw material costs, especially those linked to a conflict-driven spike in crude oil prices late in the March quarter, have tightened margins for consumer goods companies just as demand showed signs of recovery. These challenges are not isolated, as peers across the sector are also increasingly relying on price hikes to protect margins amid similar cost inflation trends.

Forecast: Near-term performance is expected to remain sensitive to ongoing geopolitical developments and commodity price swings. While demand recovery provides some support, sustained margin stability will depend on the effectiveness of cost-control measures and the easing of external volatility pressures.

India Gold Imports Plunge

India’s gold imports in April are set to fall to near a 30-year low after an unexpected tax demand hit shipments, according to a Reuters report. The sharp decline comes despite the peak buying season, as the tax issue disrupted imports and curtailed supply flows into the country.

The Lead: Gold imports are estimated at around 15 metric tons for April, far below normal levels, after authorities imposed a 3% integrated goods and services tax on banks that were earlier exempt.

The move led banks to halt shipments, significantly reducing inflows during the month. The disruption coincided with a key demand period, including Akshaya Tritiya, when gold buying typically rises, highlighting the extent of the slowdown. As a result, only limited quantities entered the country, with some volumes routed through the India International Bullion Exchange.

Forecast: Imports are expected to remain uncertain in the near term until there is clarity on the tax issue. A recovery will depend on resolution of the levy concerns and the resumption of normal shipment flows.

Howdy, Indian Influx

Indians have become the largest migrant group in Australia, overtaking those born in United Kingdom for the first time, according to official data. Nearly 9.7 lakh India-born residents now live in Australia, reflecting a sharp rise driven by students and skilled professionals.

Setting: Much of this growth flows through the international education pipeline, where Indian students enroll in large numbers and often transition to work visas and permanent residency. That makes migration closely tied to Australia’s universities and labour market needs.

Turning Point: But the trend is running into political resistance. Rising migration has intensified pressure on housing and infrastructure, pushing policymakers to tighten rules. Authorities have already flagged Indian applicants as the highest-risk category in the student visa system, triggering stricter documentation, tighter approvals and greater scrutiny for Indian applicants.