Is The Gulf Dream Over?

Dear Reader,

Normally, the line outside the UAE embassy in Vasant Kunj stretches all the way to the main road.

But these days, there are far fewer people.

When I visited last week, I met two people: Gopal and Girish Kanojia. Gopal had come to support Girish, his brother-in-law, who was applying to join him in Dubai to work at a laundromat.

“I had a flight back on March 9, but it got cancelled because of the war. I’ll wait another month for things to cool down,” Gopal told me.

The war he’s referring to is the US-Israel-Iran conflict dominating the headlines right now. It has already caused thousands of deaths, mostly in Iran and Lebanon. In India, it’s also disrupting energy supplies. Households and businesses across the country are dealing with severe LPG shortages.

But while most coverage has focused on fuel, there’s been far less attention on its impact on Indian migrant workers.

Nearly nine million Indians live and work across the Gulf, in the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar, Oman, Bahrain, and beyond. Reports suggest they send about 40 billion dollars in remittances to India each year.

“This war could have a bigger impact than COVID-19 or even the global financial crisis,” migration expert Prof S Irudaya Rajan told me. “Even a 10% decline in remittances would mean a significant loss. That’s huge for states like Kerala.”

The full impact of a drop in remittances will take time to show up.

But what’s happening right now?

Recruitment agents–the people who help workers like Gopal find jobs and secure visas–are seeing mixed signals. One told me he has no work at all. Others said business has dipped only slightly.

“If someone’s stomach is full, he’ll want to sleep all day. But if he’s hungry, he’ll do whatever he can,” one agent told me. “For many, the choice is simple: die by bombs or die by hunger.”

Gopal put it more simply.

In India, he would save just Rs 5-6,000 a month after expenses.

In Dubai, he earns around Rs 40,000. His company covers food, housing, even grooming. He saves almost all of his salary. 

“Pet ke liye aadmi kuch bhi karne ko tayyaar ho jaata hai,” he said.

To hear directly from Gopal, recruitment agents, and experts, check out the latest episode of The Signal Brief.

You can find The Signal Brief on YouTube, Spotify, and Apple Podcasts.

Thank you once again for listening and supporting us. We’d love to hear from you; write to us at [email protected] or find us on Instagram or X at @thesignaldotco.

Best,
Kudrat
on behalf of The Core

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