Good Morning. Trump admits the US doesn’t have enough skilled workers—even as immigration stays tight. At the same time, Washington is softening tariffs on India, Switzerland, and China, hinting that trade wars may be losing steam. The result? Global tensions ease a bit, but young Americans are still struggling.

Indian equity benchmarks ended on a strong note on Wednesday, with the Nifty closing above 25,850. The Sensex climbed 595.19 points, or 0.71%, to settle at 84,466.51, while the Nifty gained 180.85 points, or 0.70%, to close at 25,875.80.

In other news, SEBI plans new reforms to draw more foreign investors and deepen capital markets. Meanwhile, SpiceJet’s loss widened to Rs 6.34 billion in the September quarter.

THE TAKE

Is A Weary Trump Giving In On Tariffs?

By Govindraj Ethiraj

On Tuesday, US President Donald Trump admitted in a media interview that the United States does not have enough skilled talent to meet its labour needs.

You also have to bring in talent, he said.

A quick reminder, the US Government is presently focused on keeping all kinds of labour out of the country, whether skilled or unskilled, legal and illegal.

“You don’t have certain talents. And you have to, people have to learn. You can’t take people off, like an unemployment line, and say, ‘I’m going to put you into a factory. We’re going to make missiles,’” he told Fox News.

Elsewhere, Nalin Haley, the 24-year-old son of former US ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley, told a British news outlet the job market has become increasingly difficult for young Americans.

“We don't just stop illegal immigration,” said Haley, who has Indian roots. “I think we need to stop legal immigration,” he said.

His, fairly valid point - his friends have struggled to find work despite their education. 

“My friend group from high school, all graduated, great degrees from great schools. It's been a year and a half, and not one of them has a job, not one. So I'm angry at that.”

Moreover, he says when you see a bunch of foreigners coming over here to take jobs that [my friends] wanted,” he said, “they have every right to be pissed, and I'm pissed for them.”

Looking back at the wild ride that began on April 2, the day Donald Trump announced the first reciprocal tariff announcements, you can see that some of the reasons that were proffered even make sense. For example, the need to bring jobs back to America from the countries they have fled to, notably China.

The strategy may not have failed but it has not worked. And even if it is or will over time, it will not instantly address the angst the young Mr Haley and his friends seem to be suffering from.

Elsewhere, in the case of both India and Switzerland, Trump has put out conciliatory statements.

In the case of India, he said that with India now substantially reducing Russian oil imports (which India has not as of October at least), the US would be bringing the tariffs down.

"We’re making a deal with India. Much different than we had. Right now they don’t love me but they will love us again. We’re getting a fair deal. I think we’re pretty close to doing a deal that is good for everybody," the President said.

Meanwhile, the US and Switzerland too are close to signing a trade deal to lower tariffs of 39% that President Donald Trump slapped on the country in August, according to multiple reports. CNBC reported the president saying on Monday that White House officials were “working on a deal to get the tariffs a little lower.” 

“I haven’t set any number, but we’re going to be working on something to help Switzerland. We hit Switzerland very hard. But we want Switzerland to remain successful,” he added, saying the country had been a “very good ally.”

The tariff on Swiss exports could be cut to 15%, matching the rate that was imposed on EU exports to the U.S., according to various media reports citing sources close to the talks. Bloomberg reported that a deal could be finalized within weeks.

And there was the China truce deal.

The U.S. halved fentanyl-linked tariffs on imports from China to 10% and extended for a year a truce that lowered the reciprocal tariff rate from 34% to 10%. In return, China’s Ministry of Commerce rolled back several export restrictions on critical minerals and rare earth materials to the U.S. on Monday. Those curbs, first imposed on Oct. 9, had targeted materials vital for military hardware, semiconductors, and other high-tech industries.

In each of these cases, while all countries involved have embarked on intense backchannel negotiations and kept up the pressure, China and India for sure have not conceded an inch on the front channel.

India has creditably kept up the pressure, pointedly and openly rebutting President Trump on issues linked to Pakistan and stood its public ground so far on Russian oil and agriculture imports.

If I was in Trump’s negotiating team, I would be exhausted and pretty worn down by now.

On the other hand, inflation is rising in the United States, despite all the efforts by the administration to dismiss it. And prices will rise further. In industries like apparel which operate on roughly 6-month order and export cycles, the real pressure will start now, for both exporters and importers.

Indian restaurants in New York have already hiked prices because of the higher tariffs they pay on produce imported from India as a Bloomberg report pointed out earlier this week.

So will the US administration give in and bring tariffs back to some reasonable level in the next month? All signals are pointing in that direction.

Pressure has been building up from all sides, like we just recounted.

This would include corporations in America, which must include the likes of Walmart, Amazon and the auto industries, the exporting countries like China and India who are either doing their arm twisting or holding their ground. 

And finally and hopefully, the realisation that the tariff strategy is not really working and not quite achieving the objectives it was supposed to or even moving in that direction. 

And then the drubbing the Republicans have got in the spate of elections with Republicans having been banished from New York.

As elections go, a New York mayoral contest may be very small. As symbolism goes, it is right on the top. 

And a democratic socialist mayor, many of whose economic policies would cause me to cringe too suggests whatever the Government is doing, it is not making the youth happier. 

So, while Zohran Mamdani is a tipping point of sorts, will tariffs disappear and go back to the good old days ? Not likely at all and not soon. 

But a healthy balance or number, at around 15% will surely restore some sanity across the board and maybe even improve Republicans’ electoral prospects. 

And businesses all over the world who in any case are fighting a mighty battle to free themselves from America’s economic vice-like grip, might slow down.

The world of trade will not be the same, for a long time.

CORE NUMBER

2,400

That’s the number of Global Capability Centres (GCCs) that India could host by 2030, up from about 1,800 now, according to TeamLease Services, as cited by Reuters. These centres, spanning sectors from manufacturing to financial services, already account for over half of all GCCs worldwide and generate $64.6 billion in export revenue — a figure projected to rise to $110 billion by 2030, driven by India’s deep talent pool and cost competitiveness.

Setting: TeamLease said the US H-1B visa crackdown under Donald Trump has had little impact on offshoring plans. “People don't just change hiring and firing at the whim of some political policy-related decision,” said Rishi Agarwal, co-founder and CEO of TeamLease RegTech.

Context: While US companies still dominate the GCC landscape, firms from Europe and Southeast Asia are also expanding in India. States like Uttar Pradesh are rolling out dedicated GCC policies to attract investment. The next phase of growth will include smaller “nano-GCCs” , with fewer than 100 employees, focused on R&D and artificial intelligence, said Neeti Sharma, CEO of TeamLease Digital.

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FROM THE PERIPHERY

SEBI Eyes Foreign Flows.

India’s markets regulator is planning reforms to attract overseas investors and deepen capital markets, said Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) chairperson Tuhin Kanta Pandey at an industry event. 

Overview: SEBI wants to make it easier and cheaper for foreign funds to invest by speeding up registration and lowering trading costs in the cash market. It’s also reviewing short-selling and securities lending norms, and may allow trade netting–letting investors offset buy and sell trades to reduce capital use. However, the regulator has paused plans to shift to same-day settlement, citing operational challenges. 

Context: Pandey’s comments come as foreign investors have withdrawn nearly $17 billion from Indian equities this year, prompting SEBI to pivot from strict oversight to measures that boost participation and liquidity.

UDAN Gets Reboot?

India plans to subsidise airlines to operate flights from dormant airports, aiming to revive underused infrastructure built under its Ude Desh Ka Har Nagrik (UDAN) regional connectivity scheme, The Economic Times reported. Airlines will receive monthly payments to offset fare discounts and boost traffic on select routes.

Flashpoint: The Core recently reported how several regional airports built under the UDAN scheme lie idle due to poor planning, low demand and weak connectivity. The revamped plan targets newly built but idle airports, such as Azamgarh and Muzaffarpur, and may include both auction-based and direct incentive models.

Outcome: UDAN, launched in 2016, has added 649 routes and 93 airfields, but many remain unused. The proposal, soon to be presented to the Prime Minister’s Office, seeks to balance India’s uneven infrastructure rollout.

SpiceJet’s Widening Loss.

Cash-strapped airline SpiceJet posted a wider net loss of Rs 635.42 crore in Q2 FY26, hit by forex losses, costs from grounded and reinducted aircraft, and airspace curbs. It had logged a Rs 447.54 crore loss in the same quarter last year but expects a turnaround in the second half of FY26, PTI reported.

By The Numbers: Excluding forex losses, SpiceJet’s Q2 net loss stood at Rs 447.70 crore, up from Rs 424.26 crore a year ago.

What’s Next? SpiceJet chairman Ajay Singh said current losses reflect short-term costs tied to fleet revival, which are expected to yield results in the coming quarters. As per Reuters, a large part of SpiceJet’s Boeing 737 MAX fleet remains grounded, forcing the airline to rely on costly wet-leased aircraft to meet demand ahead of the festive season.

Succession Slip?

Asia’s private wealth will reach about 99 trillion USD by 2029, yet many of the region’s wealthiest families lack clear succession plans, according to a new report by Boston Consulting Group, UOB Private Bank, and the National University of Singapore. 

Fast Facts: Almost half of first-generation wealth holders have not proactively appointed or prepared successors: 37% only begin planning after a health crisis and 43% when business troubles arise. The risk goes beyond family drama: much of Asia’s wealth is anchored in founder-led firms that employ millions. Poor or chaotic handovers could freeze assets in legal disputes, fragment family empires and destabilise companies that lack established governance. 

What This Means Going Forward: The region’s share of global private wealth has risen from 6% a quarter­-century ago to some 21% now, underscoring how critical smooth transitions have become. 

PODCASTS

On Episode 724 of The Core Report, financial journalist Govindraj Ethiraj talks to Pooja Vijay Ramamurthi, Fellow at Centre for Social and Economic Progress (CSEP) as well as Madhavi Arora, Lead Economist at Emkay Global Financial Services.

• Markets perk up on trade signals

• Inflation hits record low, what does that mean?

• International Energy Agency now says electric vehicle sales could slow down and fossil fuel consumption will rise, in a reversal of sorts

• COP30 kicks off in Brazil. What’s at stake this time?

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