India's Reality Vs World Bank

JANUS VIEW

World Bank’s Inequality Report: Real News Or Data-Driven Fiction?

Belief in the ability of people to believe impossible things is more widespread than you might think.

The World Bank is afflicted by this, apparently. It put out a policy brief recently, which claims that India is today the world’s fourth least unequal country. This, at a time when valuations on India’s stock markets are rolling out new dollar millionaires and billionaires on a regular basis, entry level cars do not sell and mass consumption goods stall, even as every marketer worth his salt is trying to go premium to tap into the purchasing power of those who still have the capacity to splurge, whether on residences or on imported cosmetics.

Unlike politicians whose celebrity and popularity can be counted on to carry conviction when they make tall claims to credulous voters, the World Bank has to marshal some data to support its reports. On inequality, it has put forward the Monthly Per Capita Consumption Expenditure (MPCE) figures for 2022-23 and 2023-24, released mid-2024 and early 2025, respectively.

Inequality Mirage

Even with the most accurate data, inequality measures based on consumption would show a remarkably less adverse picture, as compared to inequality measures of income. The rich would certainly consume much more than the poor, but also save a great deal more, so that the gap between consumption patterns would be far smaller than the gap between incomes at the top and the bottom of the social pyramid.

But this is not what makes the MPCE data such a bad guide to measuring inequality in India. The rich reveal only a fraction of their actual consumption to surveyors who come knocking, and seek intricate details of what all they had consumed.

The aggregate consumption, computed from the data reported in the MPCE survey, amounts to only 49% of the total private final consumption reported in the national income accounts.

Fake data yield fake inequality measures and loud claims of governance achievements.

When the news that the World Bank has come out with a report of inequality being low in India is real, but the World Bank’s findings are fake, does this amount to fake news?

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CORE NUMBER

2.3 million units

That’s the total number of premium motorcycles (engine capacity above 150cc) sold in India during FY25 — up from 1.9 million units in FY19, according to CRISIL Intelligence.

🏍️ A shifting market:
Premium bikes now make up 19% of motorcycle sales, rising from 14% in FY19, while economy bike market share dropped to 46% from 62%.

💡 Why it matters:
Despite overall motorcycle volumes dropping to 12.3 million in FY25, premium segment sales are up 22% above pre-COVID levels, driven by more models (35 vs 23 in FY19) and growing affluent demand.

Trade Talks Advance. An Indian trade delegation is headed to Washington in the coming days for fresh talks on a bilateral trade deal, officials told Bloomberg, marking a critical push toward sealing an interim pact.

Catch Up Quick: India’s chief negotiator Rajesh Agrawal confirmed that discussions are ongoing, with his team having already travelled to the U.S. three times. The delegation’s visit follows a framework agreed upon in April during high-level meetings in New Delhi.

What’s Next? Both sides aim to finalise an interim deal by fall. But disagreements remain, especially over Washington’s push for market access to genetically modified crops.

AI Browser Battle: OpenAI is preparing to launch an AI-powered web browser that will directly challenge Google Chrome, Reuters reported on Thursday quoting sources.

What’s New: Slated to debut in the coming weeks, this browser aims to transform how people surf the web by integrating a ChatGPT-like chat interface and allowing AI "agents" to perform tasks like booking and form-filling on users’ behalf.

Why It Matters: With over 500 million ChatGPT users, OpenAI could grab critical user data from Chrome, which underpins Google’s ad revenues. Built on Google’s open-source Chromium, the move signals OpenAI’s push to expand its footprint beyond chatbots into everyday browsing.

Crash Recorders Intact, Functional: Indian investigators told lawmakers the black boxes from the June 12 Air India crash were not damaged and provided “good data,” two sources told Reuters—contradicting earlier media claims. The Dreamliner crash killed 260 and triggered nationwide scrutiny.

Flashpoint: Investigators are examining the fuel control switches and engine thrust issues. The cockpit voice and flight data recorders were recovered within days from the wreckage.

What’s Next? The Aircraft Accident Investigation Bureau’s (AAIB) preliminary crash report is expected by Friday. Meanwhile, regulators in India and the EU are probing broader safety lapses across Air India and its budget arm, Air India Express.

Ford’s Massive Recall: Ford is recalling over 850,000 vehicles in the U.S. due to a defect in the low-pressure fuel pump that can lead to engine stalls and increase crash risks, Reuters reported.

The Backstory: Affected models include the Lincoln Aviator, F-150 trucks, and Mustang, with failures more likely when fuel is low or in hot weather. Drivers might notice misfires, rough running, or warning lights before a stall.

What’s Next? Ford is still working on a fix, as the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration estimates about 10% of these vehicles have the defect.

THE SIGNAL DAILY

Who’s Buying A Rs 10 Lakh Watch In India?

There was a time when people needed watches, to check the time of course. But now, our phones, laptops and even our fridges can tell us that. Still, the watch market, particularly the luxury watch market, is growing in India. 

According to Market Brew, between January to May 2025, exports of Swiss watches to India grew to Rs 1,100 crore – that’s a yearly growth of 10%. Even in 2024, this sector performed quite well – Swiss watch exports to India were worth Rs 2,600 crore. 

In the latest episode of The Signal Daily, we’ll learn about who’s buying luxury watches in India, and why? Some buyers also see luxury watches as an investment that will give them returns. How does that work? 

The Core produces The Signal Daily. Follow us wherever you get your favourite podcasts. To check out the rest of our work, go to www.thecore.in. 

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On Episode 629 of The Core Report, financial journalist Govindraj Ethiraj talks to Priyanka Kishore, Director and Principal Economist at Asia Decoded.

• Markets dip further as Q1 results start rolling in

• Trump tariff range from 50% to 500%, labour intensive countries most hit

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• The delay in releasing information on the Air India Ahmedabad crash has serious consequences

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