India Looks Strong on Paper. BUT...

India’s numbers look comforting. Growth is strong, inflation is low, oil prices are easing, and the box office is breaking post-pandemic records. But look closer, and across the economy, energy, and entertainment, the story is far less settled.

Economists warn that weak prices are hollowing out incomes and jobs even as GDP rises. Energy experts argue that a prolonged phase of low oil prices could reshape India’s fiscal math and energy choices, just as AI and data centres push up power demand. And in cinema, a ₹13,000-crore year masks falling footfalls and an industry increasingly dependent on a few big “event” films.

The common thread is hard to miss: revenues are rising, but participation is narrowing. Whether in growth driven by credit and public spending, energy becoming as much about affordability as transition, or cultural consumption concentrating at the top, the headline numbers conceal growing fragility.

This edition looks beyond the comfort of big figures to ask what they are really telling us about sustainability, resilience, and the risks building beneath India’s moment of apparent strength.

WEEKEND EDITION (Energy Special)

India’s Energy Shift Has a Backbone — And It’s Buried Underground

Govindraj Ethiraj in conversation with Atanu Mukherjee, CEO, Dastur Energy

Oil prices are shaping up to be one of the most consequential variables for India’s economy in 2026. In this episode, Atanu Mukherjee explains why crude is likely to remain in a lower range—and how that could quietly alter India’s inflation outlook, energy strategy, and growth trajectory.

Key takeaways from the conversation

• A structurally softer oil market
  Global supply is set to outpace demand in 2026, keeping Brent crude in the USD 50–60 range. This is less about short-term shocks and more about a persistent oversupply dynamic.

• OPEC’s changing role
  OPEC’s ability to manage prices is weakening amid non-OPEC supply growth and muted demand, leading to lower volatility and fewer price spikes.

• What low oil means for India
  Cheaper crude supports lower inflation, improves the current account, and eases pressure on households—but also reshapes fiscal math and energy-sector incentives.

• India’s import strategy is evolving
  Russian oil has become embedded in India’s supply mix, while Venezuela emerges as a longer-term option. Refining flexibility is now a strategic asset.

• Refining and petrochemicals matter more
  As transport fuel demand changes, India’s refining capacity and downstream petrochemicals strategy will play a bigger role in capturing value.

• Gas still matters
  LNG prices and global gas supply expansion are discussed alongside India’s dependence on imports and price sensitivity. Natural gas remains critical, even as affordability constrains adoption.

• Renewables are not enough on their own
  Reliable power will continue to depend on gas and coal-based solutions alongside renewables, especially as base-load demand rises.

• AI is the new demand shock
  Data centres, hyperscalers, and AI-driven workloads are emerging as major energy consumers, putting pressure on power infrastructure, grids, and fuel choices.

Bottom line

Low oil prices in 2026 may look like a windfall—but they also signal deeper shifts in global energy markets. For India, the opportunity lies in using this window to strengthen energy security, infrastructure, and long-term resilience, before the next cycle turns.

INDIA ENERGY WEEK 2026

India Energy Week returns for its 4th edition from 27–30 January 2026 in Goa, held under the patronage of the Ministry of Petroleum & Natural Gas and co-organised by FIPI and DMG Events.

As India advances its role in the global energy transition, the event will bring together policymakers, industry leaders and innovators to shape practical pathways toward a secure, sustainable and affordable energy future.

IEW 2026 will spotlight India’s leadership in balancing energy access with decarbonisation, while showcasing strategic investments, emerging technologies and global partnerships driving the next era of energy progress.

THE CORE QUIZ

THE MEDIA ROOM

What ₹13,000 Crore Tells Us About Indian Cinema in 2025

Vanita Kohli-Kandekar in conversation with Shailesh Kapoor, Founder & CEO, Ormax Media

Indian cinema had its biggest post-pandemic year in 2025, crossing ₹13,000 crore at the domestic box office for the first time. But the numbers reveal a business that is changing shape—not simply recovering.

Key insights

• Record revenues, weaker footfalls
  Box office collections surged even as fewer people went to theatres, driven by higher ticket prices and premium formats.

• The age of the event film
  Audiences are showing up for big, high-impact releases, making movie-going more occasional and less habitual.

• Hindi cinema’s comeback
  A stronger, more diverse slate helped Hindi films rebound sharply after several uneven years.

• Regional shifts
  Parts of South Indian cinema saw stagnation, while Gujarati cinema emerged as an unexpected growth story.

• Franchises dominate
  Established IPs are increasingly central to box office success, crowding out mid-budget experimentation.

• OTT vs theatres
  Streaming has become a truly national market, even as theatrical cinema remains fragmented by language.

• Hollywood’s pan-India edge
  Ironically, Hollywood now functions as the most pan-Indian theatrical player in the country.

Bottom line

₹13,000 crore marks a milestone—but not a return to old habits. Indian cinema is earning more from fewer viewers, with higher stakes, higher prices, and a sharper divide between winners and the rest.

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HOW INDIA’S ECONOMY WORKS

India’s “Goldilocks” Economy: A Closer Look

Puja Mehra in conversation with economist Partha Chatterjee

India’s macro numbers look reassuring: strong real GDP growth, low inflation, and a central bank calling it a “Goldilocks” phase. But beneath the headlines, Partha Chatterjee warns, the economy is far less comfortable than it appears.

Key points

• Real vs nominal growth gap
  Real GDP is growing fast, but nominal growth has slowed sharply—a sign of weak pricing power, not strength.

• Low inflation isn’t harmless
  Deflationary pressures in agriculture and parts of manufacturing are squeezing incomes, profits, and government revenues.

• Demand is policy- and credit-led
  Growth rests on public capex, rising household borrowing, and cash transfers—raising questions about sustainability.

• Jobs remain the missing piece
  Industrial policy tools like PLI have boosted output but delivered limited employment gains; rural wages remain stagnant.

• Rising import dependence
  Manufacturing growth is increasingly import-intensive, weakening domestic value addition.

Bottom line

India’s growth looks strong on paper, but weak prices, fragile incomes, and poor job creation suggest an economy that is more vulnerable than the headline numbers imply.

BREAKFAST SERIES

Ahead of the Union Budget 2026, The Core, in partnership with EDGE, a community of leaders, is hosting a small, in-person breakfast discussion with senior economists and tax leaders to examine India’s tax and economic signals.

This discussion is designed as a focused, off-record exchange, centred on interpretation rather than prediction. The aim is to understand direction early, in a setting that allows informed discussion among senior decision-makers.

Attendance is limited to maintain the quality of discussion. If this is relevant to your role, you may register using the link below. Confirmations will be shared separately.

THE TEAM

✍️ Zinal Dedhia, Kudrat Wadhwa | ✂️ Rohini Chatterji | 📹️ Maitrayee Iyer | 🎧 Joshua Thomas

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