Oil, Blood, And Broken Pipelines: The True Cost Of The American War On Iran

The American-Israeli war on Iran arrived at India’s doorstep when an American submarine torpedoed and sank an Iranian warship, IRIS Dena, which had left after taking part in a naval exercise hosted by India off the Vizag coast. It was attacked off the Sri Lankan port of Galle, and Sri Lankan efforts have rescued 80-odd personnel who were aboard the Iranian ship, sailing far away from the combat zone in the Persian Gulf. 

The esteem in which Washington holds New Delhi is evident from this brazen attack on a ship that was where it was because it had chosen to accept India’s invitation and taken part in a multi-nation naval exercise, MILAN, along with ships from the US, Australia, Japan, South Korea, Russia, France, Germany, the UAE, and the Philippines.

In a defiant show of autonomy from standard interpretations of strategic autonomy, India has so far refused to condemn this attack on its guest.

Hormuz Chokehold

The attack on Iran commenced on February 28, and so far, there is little clarity on what constitutes America’s war aim. So far, the US president has neither confirmed nor denied the likelihood of sending in troops to finish off the rest of the clerical regime, after its head had been chopped off by way of precision missile attacks that had destroyed the building in which the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khameini and senior functionaries, including the defence minister and commanders of the Revolutionary Guards Corps were conferring.

If Israel and the US refuse to place boots on the ground, the chances of a regime change in Tehran are limited, even if there is widespread popular resentment against the incumbent clerical regime. This is for two reasons: the deep entrenchment of the repressive machinery of the state controlled by the regime, and the tendency for public sentiment to rally around the flag at the time of an attack by an external enemy.

The result of the Iranian regime staying in place and fighting back against the attack is a continued blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, through which much of the oil from the Gulf petrostates flows to the rest of the world. 

LNG is stuck altogether, with Qatar cut off by the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. India could experience shortages of natural gas. Hopefully, this should accelerate the lethargic moves underway to gasify India’s most abundant domestic fuel, coal.

The US would be forced to wind down its dislike of Russian oil. If economies like India and China do not buy Russian crude, and tap African and American sources away from those of the choked-off Persian Gulf, relied on by Europe and Japan, crude prices will shoot up much more than the 15% rise in Brent Crude and the 19% rise in WTI, the American benchmark. 

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24.09 lakh

That’s how many vehicles auto companies sold in February 2026, a 25.6% year-on-year jump, according to the latest retail data from the Federation of Automobile Dealers Associations (FADA). The figure includes sales across two-wheelers (2W), three-wheelers (3W), commercial vehicles (CV), passenger vehicles (PV), tractors and construction equipment.

Growth by segment:

• Two-wheelers: +25.0%

• Three-wheelers: +24.4%

• Passenger vehicles: +26.1%

• Commercial vehicles: +28.9%

• Tractors: +36.4%

• Construction equipment: −1.2% 

FADA attributes the strong growth largely to the continued impact of GST 2.0 tax cuts, which lowered prices for several vehicle categories and boosted affordability. C S Vigneshwar, President of FADA, said the industry expected the tax changes to deliver a structural boost to demand. Dealers also cited strong wedding-season purchases, new model launches and improving rural sentiment as factors lifting sales.

Future: Vigneshwar said dealer sentiment remains positive for March. FADA’s survey shows a majority of dealers expect sales to rise further, supported by festival demand and typical financial year-end buying.

The Pioneer presents India Finance & Innovation Forum 2026 convenes policymakers, regulators, financial institutions and industry leaders to examine India’s evolving financial architecture. Over three days, senior decision-makers will explore fiscal and monetary priorities, capital markets, digital finance and innovation-led growth through focused dialogue, networking and collaborative sessions on what’s changing, what works and what comes next.

India’s Energy Risk

India is seeking US marine cover for vessels shipping oil from the Middle East as escalating conflict in West Asia threatens energy supply chains, sources told Reuters. The disruptions are already increasing risks for fuel prices, fertiliser supplies and manufacturing inputs, according to a brief by the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI).

Fast Facts: India imported $98.7 billion worth of goods from West Asia in 2025, including nearly $70 billion in petroleum. Missile and drone strikes have hit energy and logistics facilities across Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the UAE and Oman, raising fears of shipping disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global energy route. Vessel movement restrictions have halted LNG supplies to the Gas Authority of India Limited (GAIL) under a Petronet contract since Wednesday.

Flashpoint: Analysts warn prolonged disruptions could quickly push up fuel costs and ripple across sectors, from fertilisers to diamonds and construction.

Stranded And Uncovered

Travellers stranded by the war in Iran are discovering that their travel insurance may not cover the disruption. As airspace closures and airport shutdowns grounded thousands of flights across the Middle East, many passengers found that standard policies exclude losses linked to armed conflict, including replacement flights and extended hotel stays.

Why It Matters: Insurers say such exclusions are standard because wars create large, unpredictable risks that are difficult to price without making premiums prohibitively expensive.

Origin: The episode highlights a long-standing criticism of the travel insurance industry. As The Signal Brief previously reported, the sector is growing rapidly in India but still pays out relatively few claims, partly due to narrow coverage and extensive exclusions.

India’s Startup Gender Gap

Women founders receive just Rs 4 for every Rs 100 raised by founders emerging from India’s most powerful startup networks, according to a new report by Kalaari Capital’s CXXO initiative. The study draws on ecosystem data and interviews with more than 140 founders, investors and operators to examine funding disparities in India’s startup landscape.

Setup: The report argues the gap is not due to a lack of talent. Women are entering STEM education in increasing numbers but face structural barriers later, including safety concerns, mobility constraints and limited access to influential founder networks that often drive funding and startup creation. Women are also underrepresented in venture capital decision-making roles.

Impact: The report argues that overlooking women founders creates a capital allocation problem for investors, potentially missing out on startups that evidence suggests can generate stronger revenues and build more resilient teams.

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Markets Jump In Best Session In Over A Month

On Episode 815 of The Core Report, financial journalist Govindraj Ethiraj talks to C S Vigneshwar, President of FADA as well as Sehul Bhatt, Director at CRISIL Limited.

• Markets jump in best session in over a month

• Why India has to brace for a gas shock.

• Airlines including Air India are adding long haul capacity to ease backlogs.

• Why February was a bumper month with 25% growth for Indian car makers.

• India imported $98.7bn worth of goods from West Asia in 2025, making the region a critical supplier of energy, fertilisers and industrial inputs.

• Indians account for more than 20% of Dubai property purchases by foreigners.