Imperialism, Trump Edition

JANUS VIEW

Imperialism Is Very Much Alive, And India Must Factor It Into Its Policymaking

Three and a half decades of shared, globalised prosperity, in which the rich world deployed key parts of their production and service delivery in the developing world, not only without overt friction, but also accompanied by the creation of institutions such as the World Trade Organisation that settled disputes based on consensually approved rules, rather than by the use of force, had led many to believe that Imperialism had been rendered a relic of the past.

Rents in the veil of misperception have appeared before the advent of Donald Trump — for example, the two Gulf Wars, the invasion of Afghanistan, the North Atlantic financial crisis that disrupted growth and poverty reduction in much of the developing world, treatment of Islamic extremism as a useful tool to use against inconvenient governments, such as Syria’s, or, when cordoned off from the West, the Muslim world’s problem for it to tackle as it thought fit, even as it claimed more Muslim lives than those of non-believers.

Myth Of Coexistence

It took Trump’s first term to deconstruct the myth of harmonious coexistence of the powerful who do not flaunt their power, and the disempowered.

Trump unilaterally took America out of the Paris Climate Accord, rescinded the North American Free Trade Agreement that had allowed Mexico to prosper, and scrapped the Iran nuclear deal that had been signed by the US, under Barack Obama, China, Russia, France, Britain, Germany and the European Union, besides, of course, Iran. More to the point, Trump started a trade war with China that hurt global growth, damaging the pace of poverty reduction in the developing world.

During Trump’s second term, it has become clearer.

The West turning a blind eye to Israel's razing of Gaza, the patronage to Pakistan’s army chief, all highlight the unvarnished exercise of imperial power, and NATO's actions in Ukraine and Russia all show that the world is ruled by US might.

DECODE THE NEWS

The Rs 1 Crore Payout To Air India Crash Victims May Not Be Enough

What?

While Tata Sons and Air India have announced interim payouts — Rs 1 crore and Rs 25 lakh per victim, respectively — to the Air India crash victims, challenges loom over compensation distribution and victim identification.

Questions remain over the adequacy of these amounts, delays in DNA-based identification, and the varying claims from families of passengers versus ground victims.

The amount announced by the Tata Sons is not the final compensation that the families of the victims will get.

Why?

India, in June 2009, became the 91st country to ratify the Montreal Convention, 1999 or MC99. This means airlines operating international flights from countries that have signed the treaty will pay compensation according to the established guidelines.

According to the revised limits of liability established under Articles 21 and 22 of MC99, Air India is liable to pay out 1,51,880 Special Drawing Rights (SDR) for each deceased passenger.

How is the cost of a life legally decided? Former Chief Justice of India DY Chandrachud said in accident cases when an adult loses their life, there is a cost to their value. CJI Chandrachud was part of the five-judge Constitution Bench in the Pranay Sethi—a landmark case—which laid guidelines on the computation of how compensation will be calculated.

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AIR INDIA PLANE CRASH

DGCA’s Warning And CEO’s Message

A week after the deadly crash of Air India Flight AI171 that killed 241 onboard and 34 on the ground, CEO Campbell Wilson wrote a heartfelt message to frequent flyers.

Addressed to members of the Maharaja Club, the email by Wilson reiterated that safety remains the airline’s top priority.

The email detailed that Flight AI171 was operated by experienced pilots and a well-maintained aircraft with no prior technical issues. “We, together with the entire aviation industry, await the official investigation report,” he said.

About maintenance, the email mentioned that the plane was well-maintained, with its last major check in June 2023 and the next scheduled for December 2025.

Its right engine was overhauled in March 2025, and the left engine was inspected in April 2025. Both the aircraft and engines were regularly monitored, showing no issues before the flight.

Campbell said that while the airline will continue enhanced pre-flight safety checks, it may affect Air India’s flight schedules. For that, the airline will “reduce our international widebody flights by around 15% starting June 20, 2025 through to at least mid-July. This will also allow us to have more backup aircraft ready to handle any unexpected issues”.

Regulator’s Warning

Separately, Reuters found that the DGCA warned Air India for flying three Airbus jets with overdue emergency equipment checks — delayed by up to three months—citing weak compliance and oversight. This finding is unrelated to the Boeing 787 crash.

Following a June 14 directive from the DGCA, enhanced safety checks began across Air India’s 787 fleet. Of 33 aircraft, 26 have cleared inspections, and the rest are undergoing scheduled maintenance. These checks will also extend to the Boeing 777 fleet.

CORE NUMBER

$1.7 billion

That’s the total amount India’s IPO market is set to raise next week—making it the busiest stretch of 2025 so far, according to Bloomberg.

📊 The lineup:
Kalpataru, Ellenbarrie Industrial Gases, Globe Civil Projects, and HDB Financial Services (a unit of HDFC Bank) are together eyeing $1.5 billion through public listings. HDB’s $ 1.4 billion IPO will be the largest since Hyundai’s listing last year.

📈 What’s fueling demand:
A 12% rally in the Nifty 50 Index, a surprise 50-bps rate cut, and strong liquidity have revived investor appetite and brought companies back to the primary market.

Amazon Expands India Ops: Amazon India will invest over Rs 2,000 crore in 2025 to scale up its logistics and operations network. The funding will expand fulfilment, sortation, and delivery capacity, upgrade existing infrastructure, and deploy new tech tools for faster, more efficient deliveries.

Impact: The investment will improve delivery speed and processing capabilities, benefiting customers across all serviceable pin codes. It also aims to enhance reliability in the supply chain and includes tech for driver safety, route optimisation, and better onboarding through app updates.

What’s Next? Over 80,000 delivery associates will benefit from free health check-ups. Welfare initiatives like ‘Ashray (rest points), Pratidhi (scholarships), Samridhi (financial education), and Sushruta (healthcare for truck drivers) will be scaled up. New sites will be launched across India, while existing ones will be upgraded to support increased demand.

Global FDI Falters Again: Global foreign direct investment (FDI) fell 11% in 2024 to $1.5 trillion, marking a second straight year of decline, according to Livemint citing a United Nations (UN) report. Project finance deals slumped 27% as global uncertainty surged.

Catch Up Quick: China’s inflows plunged 29%, while India saw a smaller 2% dip. The UN report noted a pickup in greenfield project announcements in India, hinting at deferred capital flow.

The Bright Spot: Southeast Asia bucked the trend, with the countries part of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations attracting a record $225 billion in FDI, up 10% year-on-year, signalling shifting investor confidence within Asia.

Trump Institutes More Tariffs. Within the next few weeks, the US’s Commerce Department will announce another round of tariffs, this time on semiconductors, pharmaceuticals and critical minerals, according to a Bloomberg report. 

Flashpoint: Previously, US President Trump announced his infamous ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs in early April, which shook up the entire world economy, including India’s. The US’s Supreme Court has asked the President to consider taking those down. 

The Backstory: With his ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs on shaky legal ground, President Trump used his powers under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act. He expanded his 2018 50% steel and aluminium tariffs to also cover consumer goods like washing machine,s which contain those metals.

THE SIGNAL DAILY

What’s Behind India’s Labubu Doll Craze?

Seen those little dolls hanging off of people’s bags? Those are called “labubu dolls.”

They’re about 25 cms long. Popular American celebrities like Rihanna and Kim Kardashian started sporting them in 2024, which is when they became a hot item in the US. Now, they’ve become big in India too. 

I’m your host Kudrat Wadhwa and you’re listening to The Signal Daily. We don’t do hot takes. Instead, we bring you deep dives into the how and why of consumer trends. 

In the latest episode of The Signal Daily, available Friday, June 19 at 6 am, we’ll learn about what labubu dolls are. Why are they flying off the shelves like never before? And, how can you spot a fake from the real thing? 

MESSAGE FROM OUR SPONSORS

PODCAST

On Episode 611 of The Core Report, financial journalist Govindraj Ethiraj talks to Vandana Hari, Founder & CEO of Vanda Insights. 

• A Cloud of caution over the stock markets

• A big rush of IPOs could dampen market activity

• Oil prices rise again as analysts compute war risk premia

• Air India reaches out to passengers and public to announce 15% reduction in international flights, says ill-fated aircraft and engines were in good shape

• Global FDI flows falls a sharp 11%, China most hit

• Slim foldable phones is where the action is

👥 THE TEAM

✍️ Zinal Dedhia, Salman SH, Kudrat Wadhwa | ✂️ Rohini Chatterji | 🎧 Joshua Thomas