Hard Reality Of Noida's Unrest

‘Nobody Listening To Us’: Protesting Contract Labourers In Noida Decry Safety Lapses, Low Pay

By Shubhangi Bhatia

What?

A wave of protests has swept through Noida's industrial belt, as thousands of contract labourers, earning as little as Rs 10,000 a month, took to the streets demanding wage parity, safety protections, and basic dignity. The demonstrations disrupted certain factories across the Noida–Greater Noida corridor, forcing the Uttar Pradesh government to announce a 21% interim minimum wage hike for workers.

The trigger was next door. When Haryana's government notified a 35% minimum wage hike following sustained protests at IMT Manesar last week, workers in Noida asked a simple question: why not us?

"When salaries for workers have increased in Haryana, what wrong have we done to not deserve the same pay?" said Shweta, who has been working at LED and heating wire supplier GK Enterprises for two and a half years without a single salary revision, while permanent employees at the same company received hikes.

Why Now?

The West Asia conflict has quietly shredded household budgets here. An LPG supply crunch has hiked cooking gas prices with some workers sourcing cylinders from the black market for Rs 3,000.

For Vikas Kumar, who checks mobile display plates at Dixon Technologies for Rs 12,000 a month, rent eats Rs 5,000 and gas takes much of the rest. "We just want whatever the government is giving us to be passed on by the company," he said.

The protests have also exposed uglier realities: contractors paying salaries whenever they please, leaving workers unable to pay rent on time. Safety lapses are also rampant — one worker's sister lost a finger in a machine accident; the company's response was to hold a meeting and ask workers to be more careful.

Why It Matters?

The unrest has already rippled beyond factory floors, as domestic workers at a Noida condominium complex staged their own protest, demanding equivalent relief.

Labour groups say demonstrations will continue until wage hikes are passed on in writing, not just promised verbally. With eleven pending demands still unresolved at Manesar, and Noida workers newly galvanised, India's industrial heartland is signalling that the cost-of-living crisis has reached a breaking point.

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Real Estate Prices To Hitch Up If War Goes On, Affordable Inventory To Be Hit Hardest

By Katya Naidu

What?

Stuck between moderating sales sentiment and rising supply, the real estate sector is now facing a sharp spike in input costs because of the war in West Asia.

Almost all building materials, including steel, aluminium, and cement, have seen price rises since the war. This is in addition to fuel prices, which affect shipping costs and crane operating costs, among others. 

Steel prices surged by around 20% to Rs 72,000/tonne, from Rs 62,000 earlier, notes real estate consultancy Anarock. Aluminium prices zoomed by around 35% in 2026 so far, as per Trading Economics. Crude prices were at $60/barrel at the beginning of the year and are currently hovering around $100/barrel.

“Steel and cement together account for nearly one third of total construction costs, and recent increases in commodity prices are expected to drive a 7-12% rise in overall construction costs,” Pratik Tibrewala, senior VP & head of corporate finance at developer M3M India, told The Core. 

Why?

Regular talks of ceasefire and the consequent failed negotiations are adding to the volatility that’s changing the supply as well as price dynamics. 

“The price rise itself is not the only problem; it’s the state of confusion which is leading to daily fluctuations in prices. Vendors are unable to quote a delivery price, and it’s in a state of wait-and-watch mode,” Nikhil Madan, director at Mahima Group, told The Core.

Given the long gestation period for construction projects, sudden spikes in expenses can upend a project’s financial viability.  

The migration of labour back to villages due to LPG shortage might add to the costs as well as project delays that are dogging the sector. 

“For the last few years, the pressures on the construction side are only going up, and not going down,” comments Vikas Jain, CEO of real estate company Labdhi Lifestyle. 

Kotak Institutional Equities estimates the margin impact of these cost hikes at 200–300 basis points, potentially reaching 500 bps should tensions persist. As per current real estate rules, developers cannot pass on increased costs to the consumers. 

If there is a price rise, they are more likely to impact affordable homes the most.

2.82 crore units

That is how many vehicle wholesales were recorded in FY2025-26, marking a 10.4% year-on-year growth. According to the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (SIAM), the industry hit record highs across all segments, including passenger (PV), commercial (CV), and two and three-wheelers.

Context: Growth was fueled by GST 2.0 reforms and multiple repo rate cuts, SIAM’s President Shailesh Chandra said.

PVs reached 46.43 lakh units (+7.9%), while CVs and three-wheelers grew by over 12%. The two-wheeler segment led volumes at 2.17 crore units (+10.7%).

Setting: While FY2026-27 demand remains robust, Chandra warned that the West Asia conflict poses risks to fuel prices, global supply chains and the overall economy.

Meanwhile, Kotak Equities notes that the new draft of the vehicle fuel efficiency norms favours lighter fleets like Maruti's, while tightening targets for heavier vehicles. Tata Motors remains best positioned.

Energy Crisis Risks 2.5M Poor

A recent UNDP report said that the repercussions from the West Asia conflict could push 8.8 million people globally into poverty. In India specifically, it could push 4,00,000 to 2.5 million into poverty, reversing recent human development gains.

This comes even as US President Donald Trump has imposed a naval blockade targeting vessels entering or leaving Iranian ports after ceasefire talks in Islamabad collapsed. In the past 24 hours, US forces began enforcing restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz, though ships transiting to non-Iranian ports are still allowed passage.

Fast Facts: Trump warned that he would “kill” any Iranian fast-attack ships approaching the blockade, while keeping diplomatic channels open. Shipping data shows at least three vessels, including the US-sanctioned Chinese-owned tanker Rich Starry, crossed the strait despite the curbs.

Impact: Brent crude prices surged above $100 per barrel in the last 24 hours amid fresh supply fears. 

Meanwhile, S&P Global Ratings noted that India’s strong fundamentals would cushion the oil shock, though economic growth could slow by up to 80 basis points if crude averages $130 per barrel in 2026.

IMF Growth Forecast

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised India’s GDP growth forecast to 6.5% for FY27, reflecting improved economic momentum despite global uncertainties.

Backdrop: “For 2026, growth is revised upward moderately by 0.3% point (0.1% point relative to January) to 6.5%, led by positive contributions from the carryover of the strong 2025 outturn and the decline in additional US tariffs on Indian goods from 50-10%, which outweigh the adverse impact of the Middle East conflict. Growth is projected to stay at 6.5% in 2027,” the IMF noted.

Alongside growth, inflation is projected to rise significantly to 4.7% in FY27 from 2.1% in FY26.

Flashpoint: Globally, the IMF expects economic growth to ease to 3.1%, down from its earlier estimate of 3.3%. This marks a slowdown compared with the 3.4% expansion recorded in 2025.

Bottlers Rebound Outlook

Soft drink bottlers are likely to witness a recovery in revenue growth to around 15% this fiscal, returning to their long-term trend after a muted previous year, according to a Crisil Ratings’ report.

The Shift: Amid stiff competition this summer, companies are introducing products at popular price points such as Rs 10 and Rs 20 to capture impulse demand. The competitive intensity is rising as attractive long-term prospects draw new entrants, many of whom are experimenting with indigenous flavours to stand out. This strategy has helped newer players expand their market share to an estimated 6–7% last fiscal, up from around 2% in fiscal 2024.

“Intensifying competition, leading to reduced pricing flexibility amid rising crude-linked packaging costs (20-22% of overall cost), will cause a moderation in profitability this fiscal. However, marginal price hikes and increasing focus on zero-sugar variants may limit the overall impact to 200-250 bps, keeping margins healthy at 15-16%.” said Rucha Narkar, Associate Director, Crisil Ratings.

At the same time, the sector faces rising competition from new entrants offering products at affordable price points. Additionally, higher crude oil prices have pushed up packaging costs, which may reduce profitability by up to 250 basis points.

Forecast: Despite margin pressures, steady cash flows and moderate price hikes are expected to support stable credit profiles and sustain growth momentum.

A Bigger Worry For Oil: Demand Destruction

On Episode 847 of The Core Report, financial journalist Govindraj Ethiraj talks to Vipin Malhan, President of the Noida Entrepreneurs Association as well as R. Gopalakrishnan, former executive director of Tata Sons Ltd, about a new book he has co-authored, Chanakya and Sun Tzu: A Business Lens on Trade, Thought and Travel.

• A bigger worry for oil: demand destruction

• Below average monsoons are projected for India

• Why are workers in Noida protesting?

• A new lens on India-China relations