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Green Steel, Minus The Government's Money

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Good Morning. India wants cleaner steel, but the government still hasn’t decided how much it is willing to pay for it. A Rs 15,000 crore green steel mission has become a Rs 5,000 crore scheme that remains stuck in approval. Tata, JSW, Jindal and SAIL are spending anyway, pushed by Europe’s carbon rules. They are the companies that can afford it. For the smaller mills that make half of India’s steel, the wait is becoming a competitive disadvantage.

India’s equity indices ended in losses on Thursday. The BSE Sensex closed at 71,593.24, losing 1,045.46 points or 1.44%. The NSE Nifty50 closed at 22,231.80, losing 371.25 points or 1.64%.

In other news, inflation is pushing up thali costs. Meanwhile, the El Niño is still intensifying and could last till February.

India's Steelmakers Are Going Green Even As Government Dithers On Funding

In December 2024, India's Ministry of Steel promised a Green Steel Mission worth an estimated Rs 15,000 crore to help steelmakers cut their carbon emissions. It would reward green steel output, support renewable power and require government departments to buy green steel, according to the ministry's year-end review.

Nearly two years on, none of that money has been approved. The promise has shrunk to a narrower Rs 5,000 crore scheme, and even that has slipped. 

On June 29, a steel ministry official said it would be launched within three months. That deadline passed on September 30 with no cabinet approval announced.

The delay is costing India exports to Europe.

Why?

Europe now taxes the carbon in imported steel; every month without public money makes it more likely that new plants are built the old, high-carbon way.

Europe is not the only place starting to charge for carbon. 

India's own carbon market, run by the Bureau of Energy Efficiency, gives heavy industries targets for how much carbon dioxide they may emit per tonne of what they make. Factories that beat their targets earn credits they can sell, and those that fall behind must buy them.

Saurabh Diddi, a director at the bureau, had said in February that the first credits were expected to be issued by October and trading would start between November and January. 

Steel, which produces 10% to 12% of India's greenhouse gas emissions according to official data, is left out of the first round because its targets are not yet final. When they are, a mill that pollutes more will pay more.

Squeezed from both sides, India's largest steelmakers have stopped waiting for the government. JSW Steel, Tata Steel, Jindal Steel and the state-owned SAIL are paying for cleaner steel themselves, each in its own way. 

That might work for companies big enough to pay. It won’t for the smaller mills, the ones the promised money was primarily meant for, that make half of India's steel cannot. 

How The Promise Shrank 

The money was meant to follow a plan. 

In September 2024, the Ministry of Steel published a roadmap for cleaner steel, prepared by 14 task forces. In December 2024, it released a Green Steel Taxonomy, the first of its kind anywhere. 

Steel counts as green if making a tonne of it releases less than 2.2 tonnes of carbon dioxide — it earns the top five-star rating below 1.6 tonnes.

Most Indian steel fails that test.

The industry averages 2.55 tonnes of carbon dioxide for every tonne of crude steel, the raw metal before it is rolled into products, against a world average near 1.9 tonnes, according to official figures. 

The taxonomy counts finished steel, so the comparison is approximate, but the gap is too wide to close on a technicality.

Closing that gap needs new equipment, which the mission was meant to help pay for.

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Rs 30.8

That was the average cost of preparing a vegetarian thali at home in September 2026, according to Crisil’s ‘Roti Rice Report’. A non-vegetarian thali cost Rs 59.5.

The cost of a vegetarian thali rose 4% from August and 10% from a year earlier, as higher onion, vegetable oil, rice and LPG prices pushed up the cost of a home-cooked meal. The non-vegetarian thali rose 3% month-on-month and 6% on-year.

Fast Facts: Onion prices jumped 89% year-on-year to Rs 53 per kg in September, while vegetable oil prices rose 12% and rice prices increased 8%. Crisil said onion prices could remain elevated through the first half of October as delayed kharif arrivals tighten supplies, before easing towards the end of the month as fresh arrivals improve availability.

Impact: “The near-term outlook remains firm, as seasonal supply constraints are likely to keep food costs under pressure,” said Pushan Sharma, Director, Crisil Intelligence.

He added that rice, edible oil and pulses will remain key contributors to thali costs, with weather-related production risks and firm global commodity prices adding to the pressure.

Crisil expects tight inventories, weather-related risks and firm global commodity prices to keep thali costs elevated in the near term.

US Suspends IT Firms

The US government has suspended Microsoft, Adobe and several large IT firms from a programme that allows companies to seek permanent residency for skilled foreign workers, citing alleged fraud and a push to get companies to hire more Americans, Reuters reported.

Fast Facts: The firms suspended include Cognizant, Infosys, Tata Consultancy Services, Wipro, HCL and Capgemini, along with Microsoft and Adobe.

The US Labor Department said it would not accept new or process pending PERM applications involving these companies.

The Permanent Labor Certification, or PERM, process requires employers to show that there are no qualified, willing and available US workers for a specific job.

It is generally required before an employer can file for an employment-based green card. The suspension does not itself suspend H-1B visas.

The move comes as the Trump administration steps up scrutiny of the H-1B programme and companies that rely heavily on foreign workers.

Forecast: For Indian IT companies, the move adds another layer of uncertainty in their biggest overseas market. The sector is already facing pressure from changing client demand and AI-led shifts in outsourcing, while US immigration rules have become tighter.

Vance also said nine universities, including Harvard, Yale and Stanford, would be investigated over allegations involving international students and wages.

TCS Profit Beats Estimates

Tata Consultancy Services (TCS), India’s largest software services company and an IT sector bellwether, reported better-than-expected profit for the September quarter, due to cost-cutting measures and a gradual improvement in deal flow.

By The Numbers: Net profit rose 15% year on year to Rs 13,884 crore in the second quarter of FY27, beating analysts’ estimate of Rs 13,797 crore. Revenue rose 11.2% to Rs 73,188 crore, marginally ahead of expectations.

TCS’s annualised AI revenue rose to $3.1 billion from $2.6 billion in the previous quarter.

Background: TCS has been under pressure in recent months as customers in the US and Europe remain cautious about large technology projects. Geopolitical tensions, inflation and AI-led changes to traditional outsourcing are adding to concerns across the sector.

TCS is expanding its AI business in partnership with OpenAI and is exploring opportunities with others.

Kotak Institutional Equities had flagged AI-led pricing pressure and weak macro conditions as key risks ahead of the results, saying AI-related growth was still not enough to fully offset pressure on existing business.

Who’s Blocking Starlink?

India has rejected Elon Musk’s accusation that “oligarchs” are blocking Starlink from launching its satellite internet service in the country. 

The Lead: Musk previously claimed unnamed business groups were trying to protect their monopoly, in an apparent reference to billionaire-led Reliance Jio and Bharti Airtel. India’s telecom ministry said Starlink, Jio and Airtel are all at broadly the same stage of the approval process, with security assessments still underway. It called Musk’s allegations “baseless and misconceived”. 

Context: Starlink has been trying to enter India since 2021, when it began taking pre-orders without the required licence. It secured the licence in 2025, but still needs final security clearances and spectrum to launch commercially. Starlink says it wants to provide satellite internet, especially in rural and underserved areas. It has also partnered with Reliance Jio and Bharti Airtel to distribute its services.

The dispute comes as the US pushes for greater market access for Starlink in broader trade talks with India.

UPI Charges May Raise Costs

Economic think tank Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) has urged the government to withdraw the proposed 0.4% Merchant Discount Rate (MDR) on select UPI transactions, arguing that charging merchants could raise prices, squeeze small-business margins and weaken consumer demand.

GTRI founder Ajay Srivastava said UPI’s wider economic benefits, including lower cash-handling costs for banks and greater customer reach for payment apps, justify sharing its operating costs across the ecosystem.

What's Next? GTRI has also called for an independent audit of UPI’s actual costs. The proposed MDR could make cards more competitive by narrowing UPI’s price advantage, it said.

Context: The proposed charge, which would end more than six years of zero-cost UPI payments, has drawn opposition from merchants and industry participants. The timing is particularly significant as the October-December festive season typically brings a surge in consumer spending.

A delay could give payment firms more time to upgrade systems and help merchants avoid disruptions during the peak shopping period.

El Niño Set To Intensify

This year's El Niño will intensify before peaking in December and is nearly 100% certain to last until February 2027, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said on Thursday, with sea surface temperatures set to break records.

Fast Facts: Sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific are expected to reach 3.7°C above normal from October to December, surpassing the previous record of 2.6°C recorded between November 2015 and January 2016.

WMO said there is a near-100% likelihood that El Niño will persist through February 2027.

Reuters reported in July that strengthening El Niño was already a concern for India's August-September rainfall, and by October the monsoon had ended with a significant rainfall deficit.

The current WMO bulletin specifically forecasts drier-than-normal conditions over the Indian subcontinent for October–December 2026.

Background: El Niño is the warm phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, a climate pattern that influences weather worldwide. It typically occurs every two to seven years and can cause drought in some regions and heavy rainfall in others.

Global temperatures are also elevated. August's mean temperature reached 16.96°C, tying July 2023 as the hottest month on record, according to Copernicus.

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Why The Sensex Has Hit A Near Three Year Low

On Episode 1000 of The Core Report, financial journalist Govindraj Ethiraj talks to Ajay Rotti, CEO at Tax Compaas and Prashant Agarwal, Indirect Tax Partner at PWC. We also feature an excerpt from our recent Special Edition featuring Swati Khemani, Founder and CEO at Carnelian Capital.

  • Why The Sensex Has Hit A Near Three Year Low

  • Why The Latest Announcements On GST Are Important

  • A Merchant Charge On UPI Payments Is Being Delayed

  • Why Taking Bets On Company Leadership Is Important In Stock Picking

  • Elon Musk’s Strange Accusation On Indian Oligarchs

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