THE TAKE 

The New Consumer Economy Is Being Built on Surprises, Not Data

A Minecraft movie was Hollywood’s first big hit of 2025. It’s an adaptation of the block-building video game, and surprisingly low on computer graphics, especially for people of my vintage who prefer lifelike graphics in games.

A screening I attended in Mumbai went off without mishap. But the film has sparked mixed reactions elsewhere, including in the US and UK.

For one, it’s attracting crowds of teenagers. The film grossed $300 million in its first week last month and has since raked in $1.4 billion.

That’s good news because teenagers—and their parents—have been largely avoiding cinema halls, preferring to watch movies at home instead.

The problem, as The Economist pointed out last week, is the rowdy behaviour. Teenagers have been screaming during screenings, throwing drinks in the air, and jumping on their seats in sync with on-screen dialogue.

Cinema hall owners—desperate for crowds to return, including in countries like India—are now wondering how to deal with this mixed blessing.

Last week, I was speaking with Lenovo India’s Managing Director, Shailendra Katyal on The Core Report.

According to him, tablets, which were long sandwiched between PCs and mobile phones (Lenovo also owns Motorola), are now seeing a jump in sales.

The reason? Entertainment. Presumably, this means people are watching more video content on streaming platforms like Netflix and YouTube.

Screens Rise, Consoles Fall

On the other hand, console gaming is slowing down, while PC gaming is picking up, he says.

Elsewhere, The Economist also notes that sneakers, which were all the rage a few years ago, are no longer so. It says queues outside trainer stores are now shorter and less frequent.

Styles of trainers (or sneakers, as they are known outside Britain) that once sold for more than four times their retail price—like limited-edition Air Jordan 1s and chunky Yeezys—are now being offered at discounts.

The magazine adds that online marketplaces in France and the Netherlands have reportedly gone bankrupt, while Sneakersnstuff, a European retailer, filed for bankruptcy in January, citing “a global decline in the limited-edition sneakers market.”

Since 2021, the value of fashion and lifestyle sneaker sales in the US has dropped 5.8% after adjusting for inflation, according to research firm Circana.

And finally, perfumes.

Sales are surging, says another Economist piece.

Fragrance may be the smallest category in the beauty sector, but it’s growing the fastest. McKinsey estimates global sales will hit $106 billion by 2028—up by $30 billion from 2023.

Its growth is expected to outpace that of makeup, haircare, and skincare.

Interestingly, boys spent an average of $110 on fragrance in 2024—up from $75 the year before, and more than the $93 spent by girls, according to The Economist.

So much for the traditional assumptions about who buys perfume.

TikTok has a role to play in many of these shifts, especially with fragrance—spotting trends and amplifying them at a speed few can predict.

From Trends To Habits

Take the case of the Dubai chocolate bar.

Its original name is FIX, and it became a global viral sensation after being sold only in the UAE until three years ago. The founders—a couple based in Dubai—were surprised by the attention when it first came their way, and have struggled to keep up with demand ever since.

It all began with a TikTok video that went viral.

But TikTok or social media may not be the only reason. 

And catching a trend may not be simple for brands.

Because some fashion shifts unfold more slowly, influenced by a single trigger or a combination of external factors.

And it’s hard to explain why teenagers suddenly start showing up at movie halls—except to say that game-based films are perhaps better enjoyed in groups, with the added thrill of creating a bit of a ruckus and feeling good about it.

Late To Spot, Fast To Fade

Even that may not offer enough insight to reliably bet on.

Marketers would love to get early signals on such shifts—whether to scale up production or pull back.

As we have seen, it can go both ways.

But the nature of consumerism is constantly changing and becoming increasingly unpredictable.

The fairly boring perfume industry, which had seen no real action for decades, quite likely had no clue that a shift was coming—and that teenagers would suddenly start buying perfumes.

On the other hand, the sneaker industry, busy expanding, had no early insight that consumers would begin to lose interest.

Katyal told me that technology companies tend to offer consumers things they didn’t expect or even know they wanted.

Steve Jobs’ famous quote about wanting to figure out what consumers want before they do rings true here. Essentially: people don’t know what they want until you show it to them.

That’s the only moment when a company truly controls the narrative. The rest of the time, you're simply following the consumer.

Just another thought to keep in mind in an era of tariffs and other uncertainties.

CORE NUMBER

Rs 4,223 Crore

This is the net foreign capital infused into Indian equities by foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) in April—the first net inflow in three months, PTI reported. It comes after consistent withdrawals in January (Rs 78,027 crore), February (Rs 34,574 crore), and March (Rs 3,973 crore). The latest inflow has trimmed India’s total 2025 equity outflows to Rs 1.12 lakh crore. Analysts attribute the turnaround to a pause in Trump’s tariff plans, a weakening US dollar, a stronger rupee, and optimism around India’s trade talks and earnings growth. Still, flows may remain cautious given modest FY25 company earnings and profit forecasts.

—⛽ We Want More Oil! India's fuel consumption in April 2025 saw a notable uptick, with diesel demand rising 4% year-on-year to 8.23 million tonnes, according to a PTI report. This is the highest diesel demand India has recorded, ever, and experts attribute the increase to rural irrigation and urban air-conditioners. Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) demand continued its upward trend, rising 6.7% to 2.621 million tonnes, thanks to the Ujjwala scheme. Diesel remains the fuel of choice for India’s rural agri economy, even though the country has tried to shift toward petrol, compressed natural gas (CNG) and electricity as fuels for passenger vehicles. 

—📺✖️ Samsung Resists Tax Notices. South Korean electronics maker Samsung has challenged the Indian tax authority’s $520 million tax demand in an arbitration court, remarking that Reliance has been engaging in the same practices for years now.  A Reuters report said that Indian tax authorities fined both Samsung and Volkswagen for misclassifying imported parts to avoid paying tariffs. The authorities also sent Swiggy a notice of Rs 158 crores, in addition to sending notices to several foreign companies. With multinational companies (MNCs) operating in India, the taxmen have been demanding an additional 35% duties on corporate guarantees provided by foreign parent entities.

—✈️ A lull for India's IT sector? Indian IT companies like Tata Consultancy Services (TCS), Wipro and Infosys saw a moderate increase in attrition in FY25, according to a report by Businessline. That’s because of increased competition from foreign companies setting up global capability centres (GCCs) in India, the report said. Last year, Indian IT companies hired fewer than usual and even laid off many employees. Experts say that as AI becomes more efficient and productive, there will likely be fewer jobs in IT across both Indian and foreign companies. 

—🛢️ US May Push More Trade Demands! The US may seek major tariff cuts and regulatory relaxations from India as part of an upcoming bilateral trade deal, according to think tank Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI). PTI reported that demands may include scaling back India’s minimum support prices (MSP) crop subsidies, lifting restrictions on genetically modified (GM) food and dairy imports, and easing norms on remanufactured goods. Washington also wants India to allow inventory-based e-commerce by US giants like Amazon and Walmart—something India resists to protect small retailers and preserve regulatory autonomy. 

THE SIGNAL DAILY

The Signal Daily Is Back — With A Fresh Twist

The Signal Daily is back and it’s better than ever. In its new, revamped version, we will do deep dives into how India’s consumers are spending their money.

Expect the same sharp, no-fluff take on the stories that matter.

Every Monday and Friday, host Kudrat Wadhwa will break down the how and why behind major consumer spends — why are people paying extra for 10-minute deliveries, to rising rents in major metros.

And it is in great company.

With its relaunch, The Signal Daily joins The Core’s growing podcast lineup.

If you’re not already a listener, you can tune into our diverse range of podcasts that bring you engaging takes on the “core” sectors of the Indian economy that shape our world.

🎙 The Core Report

On The Core Report, Govindraj Ethiraj breaks down the biggest business and tech headlines every weekday. Thoughtful, calm, and clear — just the way you like your morning news.

🎙 The Media Room

Vanita Kohli-Khandekar takes you behind the curtain of the media and entertainment universe on her podcast The Media Room. From OTT giants to newsroom battles and studio drama — she covers it all, with the sharpest minds in the business.

🎙 How India’s Economy Works

Puja Mehra dives deep into one big economic story at a time on How India's Economy Works. She unpacks the context, history, and policy implications so you come away with real understanding, not just hot takes.

The Core has a podcast for you to listen to, whether you’re on your morning commute, walking your dog, or brewing your morning coffee.

You can find all the podcasts here. Do subscribe and share with your friends and loved ones.

👥 THE TEAM

✍️ Zinal Dedhia, Salman SH, Kudrat Wadhwa | ✂️ Rohini Chatterji | 🎧 Joshua Thomas