Distant War, Mounting Costs

The US is, indeed, the mightiest military in the world. But its might is being manoeuvred by tiny Israel to fight its own battles in West Asia, making a cartoon portraying Benjamin Netanyahu with the caption, “Worst President America has had”, cut closer to the bone than the cartoonist probably had imagined.

Two developments lend credence to US Secretary of State Marko Rubio’s contention that the US hit Iran when it did to pre-empt attacks on US interests by Iran in response to an imminent Israeli attack. 

One, the Director of America’s National Counterintelligence Centre, Joseph Kent, resigned, saying that he cannot be party to a war that advances Israel’s interests rather than America’s. Two, Israel attacked Iran’s major gas facility, the South Pars gas field, in a clear bid to provoke the response that Iran came out with.

Now What? 

Israel is wary of President Donald Trump declaring victory and calling off the war before the Iranian regime is overthrown or destroyed. It wants to remove the sole remaining obstacle to its total domination of the region, which could lead to the removal of Palestinians from the lands Orthodox Jews believe were promised to them by none other than their God.

Trump’s post on Truth Social has an implicit warning to Israel as well, as it says Israel will no longer bomb any Iranian oil or gas facility.

Even if no more oil and gas facilities are attacked, it will take several weeks to get things back to normal at the oil and gas facilities that have been hit. Oil and gas prices have soared. Aviation turbine fuel has nearly doubled in price, and airfares are rising alongside, threatening to hurt travel, tourism and hospitality for months.

Back Home

Back home, the government continues to emphasise that there is no shortage of fuel, and people should not panic. 

However, pictures of queues for LPG cylinders have cropped up in newspapers. 

The poor, who do not have formal cooking gas connections from the oil marketing companies and buy their LPG in tiny cylinders from the informal market, are the hardest hit. Eateries struggle to cook on electricity, as there is a shortage in the market of induction stoves of different sizes and heating capacities.

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Rs 12 lakh crore

That's how much investor wealth was wiped out at closing on Thursday as Indian benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty, crashed over 3%.

Fast Facts: The Sensex crashed 2,496.89 points to end at 74,207.24, while the Nifty 50 settled at 23,002.15, falling 775.65 points. The rout followed fears of surging crude oil prices, a hawkish US Fed Reserve commentary keeping rates unchanged and sustained selling by foreign institutional investors.

How We Got Here: Foreign institutional investors have been net sellers in the month of March consecutively across 12 trading sessions, with outflows of over Rs 77000 crores. This is the worst outflow since January 2025, when they sold over Rs 78000 cr.

All sectoral indices traded deep in the red, falling between 2 to 3%. The broader markets also took a hit, with mid-cap and small-cap indices sinking 3%.

HDFC Governance Jolt

HDFC Bank’s shares tumbled on Thursday after its non-executive chairman, Atanu Chakraborty, resigned abruptly, citing concerns over the bank’s internal practices. In his resignation letter, Chakraborty said “certain happenings and practices… are not in congruence with my personal values and ethics,” without offering further details.

Impact: The surprise exit raised immediate concerns about governance at India’s largest private lender, triggering a selloff in the stock. Analysts flagged the lack of clarity as a key risk for investor sentiment.

A report by Moneycontrol suggests the move may have stemmed from differences over CEO Sashidhar Jagdishan’s tenure and broader board-level decisions. Jagdishan denied any friction. “My surprise is akin to what the other board members also experienced… this came as a huge surprise to all of us,” he said in an interview with CNBC-TV18. “The foundation of the company continues to be intact,” he added.

Catch Up Quick: The Reserve Bank of India moved quickly to reassure markets. It said there are “no material concerns on record as regards its conduct or governance” and added that the bank “remains well-capitalised” with sufficient liquidity. HDFC Bank has appointed Keki Mistry as interim chairman, while the regulator said it will continue to engage with the bank’s management. 

West Asia Shockwaves Intensify

The West Asia conflict continued to escalate into a global crisis on Thursday, following Iranian strikes reportedly on Qatar’s Ras Laffan gas plant and Saudi Arabia’s Yanbu port. The assault on Qatar knocked out 17% of its LNG export capacity, with repairs projected to take three to five years, QatarEnergy CEO told Reuters.

With the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed, Brent crude surged to $114, while European airlines have warned of fare hikes. Amid the volatility, Prime Minister Narendra Modi and French President Emmanuel Macron said they were working closely towards the urgent need for de-escalation of the conflict. Trump is reportedly looking to press Japan for aid.

Overview: In India, the impact is hitting both heavy industry and daily essentials. JSW Steel has sought urgent government intervention to prevent production halts, while bottled water prices have spiked 11% as polymer costs soar, Reuters reported.

To manage the crisis, India mandated oil firms share all inventory data and is reportedly coordinating the evacuation of 22 India-bound vessels carrying over 2 million tonnes of fuel. The government has also announced a Rs 497 crore RELIEF scheme to subsidise export logistics and urged states to crack down on LPG hoarding.

Setup: The Trump administration is considering deploying thousands of additional US troops to reinforce Middle East operations as the war is in its third week, Reuters reported. Meanwhile, Iran’s internet blackout surpasses 456 hours, the longest ever, NetBlocks said.

India’s Ozempic Moment

Novo Nordisk’s patent on semaglutide, the key ingredient in its blockbuster weight-loss and diabetes drugs, has expired in India, triggering a rush of cheaper generic versions. More than 40 Indian drugmakers are preparing to launch over 50 brands, which could cut monthly treatment costs by up to 60% and expand access beyond affluent patients.

How We Got Here: Companies such as Sun Pharma, Dr. Reddy’s, and Lupin are entering the market, intensifying competition with Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly.

Pivot: However, doctors warn that falling prices and widespread availability could lead to misuse, over-prescription, and confusion among patients and prescribers in an increasingly crowded market. Previously, The Signal Brief covered the best practices of taking weight loss drugs.

Metals Hit Hard

A broad commodities selloff is sweeping global markets, with metals taking the hardest hit. Aluminium tumbled more than 8% on the London Metal Exchange, its steepest one-day fall since 2018, as traders unwound bullish bets, Bloomberg reported.

Fast Facts: The decline extends across the metals complex. Gold has dropped roughly 5% in recent sessions, while silver has slid nearly 9%. Copper prices have also retreated, slipping toward multi-month lows as exchange inventories climb and Chinese demand signals weaken.

Impact: Investors are rapidly exiting crowded commodity trades amid tighter financial conditions and a stronger dollar. 

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Markets Tank Again

On Episode 827 of The Core Report, financial journalist Govindraj Ethiraj talks to Ajay Srivastava, Founder of the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) as well as Amit Tandon, Founder and Managing Director at Institutional Investor Advisory Services (IIAS).

• Markets tank again, give up three days of gains on US threats to attack Iran’s gas fields again

• Gold and silver fall on inflation fears, major commodities crash

• Trade data for last year has been positive but the US is coming after India again

• HDFC Bank chairman quits after likely boardroom battle but leaves behind questions

• Will India curtail exports of oil products like petrol and diesel?