India’s EU Pact Won’t Work Without A Home-Grown Reset Of India Businesses

By Debraj Dasgupta

What?

After two decades of negotiations, the trade deal between India and the EU marks a transformational shift not only for businesses but also for the global order. Termed as the "mother of all deals", it bridges the world’s fourth and second largest economies, creating a combined market of Rs 2,091 lakh crore ($24 trillion), catering to 2 billion people.

The deal strengthens the position of India in a rules-based trading environment, which can help hedge against global economic volatility and fractured global supply chains.

The numbers are staggering. The agreement provides enhanced tariff liberalisation for key labour-intensive sectors, including textiles, leather, gems & jewellery, footwear, and related manufactured products. Once enforced, duties will be eliminated immediately on around 70.4% of tariff lines, covering about 90.7% of India’s export value into the EU, significantly improving competitiveness relative to current Most-Favoured-Nation tariffs in the EU market.

Although senior Indian officials have stated a strong intention for the agreement to enter into force within the 2026 calendar year, most independent analyses suggest operational commencement is more likely in early 2027 after the completion of legal and ratification steps.

The real long-term integration into the European supply chain will require more than just lower tariffs. It demands a strategic pivot by Indian businesses to master the EU’s rigorous regulatory standards, sustainability mandates, and digital trade rules.

Why Does It Matter?

The EU's biggest barrier is often not tariffs, but it’s strict regulatory standards. Exporters must invest in quality control to meet the EU's non-negotiable health, food safety, and environmental standards, as rejected consignments in the EU are often destroyed rather than returned.

Not only are safety and quality sacrosanct, but there are also international environmental and

Exporters should audit their supply chains for environmental impact and labour rights (e.g., child labour, workplace safety) to avoid being locked out of the market.

What digital and e-commerce trade rules must Indian businesses prepare themselves for?

Oil Glut Fears Built On Bad Math, Warns Energy Analyst Anas Alhaji

By Govindraj Ethiraj

Global oil market projections of a massive surplus in 2026. But this may be based on fundamental accounting errors and a misunderstanding of geopolitical trade shifts, energy expert Dr Anas Alhaji told The Core in the run-up to Indian Energy Week in Goa.

While the International Energy Agency (IEA) and major financial institutions warn of a deep market surplus by the first quarter of 2026, current market data suggests a far more balanced reality.

Failed Predictions

Forecasts suggesting oil prices would collapse into the $40 range have repeatedly failed to materialise. Despite persistent warnings of a glut since early 2025, Brent crude has remained steady in the $60 to $65 range. Alhaji notes that institutional forecasts have a long history of inaccuracy regarding consumption trends.

"If you look at the IEA forecasts, they've been for growth in oil demand, they've been wrong every year for the last 18 years," Alhaji stated. He argued that these agencies consistently underestimate demand while exaggerating the impact of "oil on water" — crude currently in transit.

Distorted Data, Shifting Routes

The narrative of an oversupplied market is often skewed by a failure to account for longer shipping distances. For example, Brazil has shifted its exports from the U.S. and Europe to China. Because the distance to China is triple that of previous routes, more oil remains on water for longer periods, appearing as an increase in inventory even though the actual supply has decreased.

Similar distortions appear in North America. Canadian oil previously moved through U.S. pipelines and was not counted as "oil on water." With new pipelines to the West Coast now sending 400,000 barrels a day to China, analysts are counting this as "extra" supply rather than a simple shift in transportation mode.

This series is brought to you in partnership with India Energy Week 2026.

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$5,300

That’s the level gold prices crossed, hitting a record high in a rapid multi-day rally. The metal has risen more than 20% since the start of the year, cementing its position as one of the strongest global assets.

Future: Analysts say gold could climb to $6,000 an ounce this year as investment demand shows little sign of easing. Investors, from central banks to retail buyers, continue to treat gold as a hedge against uncertainty rather than a short-term trade.

Catch Up Quick: Escalating conflicts and a visible weakening of the existing global order have pushed investors toward assets that sit outside governments and currencies. A softer US dollar has added fuel to the rally by making gold cheaper for buyers across the world.

Implications: As domestic prices in India hit record highs, Indian buyers increasingly prefer bars and coins over jewellery, avoiding making charges that rise alongside bullion prices. The rally has also exposed stress within the jewellery market. Local jewellers face mounting pressure as higher prices strain cash flows and make inventory harder to manage. Meanwhile, larger branded chains such as Tanishq and Kalyan Jewellers, backed by stronger financing and scale, continue to gain ground.

BYD Reworks India Strategy

Chinese car manufacturer BYD is exploring options to expand in India, including local assembly, as demand for its electric vehicles outpaces import limits, according to a Bloomberg report. India sales jumped about 88% last year to roughly 5,500 cars, stretching rules that cap imports of each fully built model at 2,500 units.

Pivot: The Chinese automaker is evaluating semi-knocked-down assembly and seeking local safety and regulatory approvals for additional models to ease constraints. Dealers are sitting on hundreds of bookings, highlighting strong demand despite import duties of up to 110%.

What's Next? Any manufacturing move would follow visits by senior executives. Using SKD assembly could significantly reduce tariffs, making expansion in one of the world’s fastest-growing auto markets more viable.

Boeing Sees India Surge

Boeing said airlines in India and South Asia are expected to add 3,290 commercial aircraft over the next 20 years, up from a prior forecast of 2,835 jets, driven by strong economic growth, a rising middle class and increasing air travel demand, Reuters reported.

The Lead: The company estimates the region will need 2,875 single-aisle planes and 395 wide-body aircraft as carriers expand capacity and modernise fleets. India and South Asia have become among the world’s fastest-growing aviation markets, with airlines aggressively growing networks amid airport upgrades.

Context: India is now the world’s third-largest domestic aviation market and the fastest-growing, led by IndiGo and Air India. Boeing said infrastructure expansion remains critical, with over 30% of India’s network still concentrated around Delhi and Mumbai.

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It's The Worst Start To A Year In A Decade

On Episode 786 of The Core Report, financial journalist Govindraj Ethiraj talks to Dr. Ajit Ranade, Economist and Former Vice Chancellor of Gokhale Institute of Politics and Economics in Pune as well as Ashok Atluri, Chairman and Managing Director at Zen Technologies.

• It's the worst start to a year in a decade, will it shift?

• Gold now clearly represents the hedge to an uncertain global economy

• A macro view on the Union Budget

• India’s anti-drone systems are gearing up for battle

• Why a toilet company is benefiting from the chip mania