Can New Rural Job Scheme Weather El Niño?

India’s Shift To Untested VB-G RAM G Could Strip Vital Rural Safety Net

By Prasanna Mohanty

Even as El Niño threatens India’s rural economy, with cumulative rainfall running 43% below normal as of June 28, a key income support programme for rural workers is being phased out. The Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (MGNREGS) will be replaced from July 1 by the Viksit Bharat — Guarantee for Rozgar and Ajeevika Mission (Grameen), or VB-G RAM G.

The transition is already affecting rural employment. Person-days generated under MGNREGS in the first quarter of FY27, as of June 25, fell 49.5% from the same period a year earlier.

The decline comes during the peak demand period for rural jobs, after the rabi harvest and before kharif sowing gathers pace. The reduction in work generation has sharply cut incomes for workers who have relied on the programme for nearly two decades since it was introduced in 2005.

Although the VB-G RAM G is scheduled to begin on July 1, it faces several uncertainties. 

Why? 

It requires states to notify a mandatory 60-day no-work period, of which 15-20 days are expected to coincide with ongoing kharif sowing. The no work period has been mandated to ensure agricultural labour is available during peak sowing and harvesting seasons.

The mandatory approval of new schemes by gram panchayats remains incomplete in many places. Unlike MGNREGS, which guaranteed work on demand as a legal entitlement, VB-G RAM G functions as a centrally sponsored scheme where job availability depends on allocations from the Centre.

Some states appear better prepared than others. Rajasthan, which has been among the stronger performers in implementing MGNREGS and conducting social audits, said it is ready.

Grassroots activists believe that we’re not as prepared as we should be, especially because it’s an El Niño year. 

Mukesh Goswami, an MGNREGS activist from Rajasthan’s Rajsamand district, said there was little clarity among officials at panchayat, block and district levels.

“When we speak with them, they say there is no direction from the state government yet and that they have been instructed not to accept work applications or issue muster rolls from June 15 onwards”, he told The Core.

He said schemes planned under the new programme are yet to be presented or approved by gram panchayats in several districts. In Jharkhand, concerns are similar.

Why Does It Matter? 

The MGNREGS has successfully operated in India for 20 years and has been among the larger employment programmes in rural India. 

The scale of the slowdown this quarter has been significant.

In the first quarter of FY27, as of June 25, work generation fell by 502.6 million person-days compared with the same period a year earlier.  

Chakradhar Buddha, a Vishakhapatnam-based rural development researcher and co-founder of LibTech India, told The Core, “Given that the El Niño threat was foreseen for months, the Centre should have had the good sense of deferring VB-G RAM G and continuing with the MGNREGS to avoid the inevitable transitional pangs and help farmers and other rural workers in their time of distress.”

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90,715

That's how many housing units homebuyers purchased across India's top seven cities in the April to June quarter, according to property consultant ANAROCK. 

This was a 6% fall from a year earlier as the conflict in West Asia, global economic uncertainty, supply chain disruptions and concerns over the IT sector weighed on buyer sentiment.

Breakdown: The report said that the Mumbai Metropolitan Region and Bengaluru remained the top-performing markets, together accounting for nearly half of all housing sales during the quarter.

Despite weaker demand, developers launched more homes across the top seven cities, with new supply rising 7% year-on-year, signalling confidence in a demand recovery.

The Big Picture: Quarterly housing sales fell to their lowest level since the first quarter of 2023. Most cities reported lower sales as geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty prompted many prospective buyers to postpone purchases.

"The housing market is becoming more balanced as supply catches up with demand, with premium housing, GCC hubs and infrastructure-led corridors driving demand. However, geopolitical tensions in West Asia and uncertainty in the IT/ITeS sector are prompting buyers to take a wait-and-watch approach, said Anuj Puri, Chairman of ANAROCK Group.

India Industrial Output

India's industrial output grew 5.1 % year-on-year in May 2026, according to quick estimates released by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) on Monday, with manufacturing and electricity and gas supply driving the expansion.

Fast Facts: The Index of Industrial Production (IIP) stood at 122.7 in May 2026, up from 116.7 a year earlier, data showed. Manufacturing, the index's largest component, grew 5%, while electricity and gas supply rose 9.9% and water supply, sewerage and waste management grew 5.5%. Mining and quarrying contracted 1.6%.

Within manufacturing, 16 of 23 industry groups posted positive growth, led by motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers (up 14.5%), electrical equipment (up 20.8%), and basic metals (up 4.6%).

The Shift: MoSPI said it had adopted the Output Producer Price Index as the deflator for the new IIP series (base year 2022-23), replacing the Wholesale Price Index for item groups making up 36.02% of the index's total weight.

Apple Challenges CCI Antitrust Findings

Apple has hit back at India's antitrust investigators, the Competition Commission of India (CCI), accusing it of copying claims made by rival companies instead of doing its own proper investigation, Reuters reported.

The CCI had earlier found that Apple broke competition laws by controlling how apps and payments work on iPhones. Apple says it's actually a “minuscule player” in India, with less than 6% of the smartphone market.

Overview: Apple also claims the investigators copied data from a separate case in Europe, even though India's market is different. It further says it was never given a chance to explain its side in person, something Google was allowed to do in a similar case.

Setup: The CCI says Apple has been delaying the case for over two years ​by not submitting responses to the investigation ⁠findings.

All the parties in the case will meet for a closed-door hearing on July 21, and if found guilty, Apple could potentially face a fine that could run into millions of dollars.

The Battle Over Scrap

India has urged the European Union to exempt it from planned restrictions on metal scrap exports, warning that the curbs could undermine gains from the recently concluded India-EU free trade agreement. 

The EU plans to tighten controls on exports of steel and aluminium scrap to non-OECD countries, including India, as it seeks to retain more recyclable material for its own industries and climate goals.

Flashpoint: But, India relies heavily on imported scrap as a cheaper and more energy-efficient raw material for steel and aluminium production. In 2025, India imported 366,000 tonnes of aluminium scrap from the EU, making it the bloc's largest buyer. Industry executives say the proposed restrictions could raise input costs, disrupt supplies and hurt India's manufacturing sector.

Impact: New Delhi has asked Brussels to provide relief from the measures during ongoing discussions on implementing the trade pact, arguing that unrestricted scrap flows remain crucial for both industry and decarbonisation efforts.

Delhi’s Aggressive EV Gambit

New Delhi has finalised a new electric vehicle (EV) policy worth Rs 15,000 crore over four years, aimed at tackling the city's severe air pollution. Car owners scrapping vehicles bought before April 2020 for an EV will get up to Rs 1 lakh incentive. Battery EVs priced up to Rs 30 lakh will be exempt from road tax and registration fees, charges that typically amount to 4%-10% of a car's price.

The Lead: Electric two-wheeler buyers will receive a Rs 30,000 incentive in the first year, tapering to Rs 10,000 by the third year. From April 2028, Delhi will stop registering new petrol and other non-electric two-wheelers. The policy also funds 32,000 EV charging points, though hybrid vehicles are excluded.

Setting: Set to take effect July 1, the policy is expected to benefit EV makers including Tata Motors, Mahindra & Mahindra, TVS Motor, Bajaj Auto and Ather Energy.

Tarun Mehta, Co-founder & CEO, Ather Energy said the policy marks one of the most significant city-level pushes for electrification in India.

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Stocks Fall Again Because Of Monsoon Concerns

On Episode 914 of The Core Report, financial journalist Govindraj Ethiraj talks to Rahul Matthan, Founding Partner of Trilegal. We also feature bites from our recent Weekend Edition featuring Rajani Sinha of CareEdge Ratings, Somashekhar Vemuri of Crisil Ratings and Manas Majumdar of PwC.

• Stocks Fall Again Because Of Monsoon Concerns Even As Rains Pick Up.

• Electricity Consumption Spike Drives Up Industrial Output.

• Most NRI Deposits Into New Schemes Expected From The Gulf Region.

• Why India Needs A Single Destination For Its Multiple Laws And Rules.

• Residential Sales Dropped 6% In Q2 2026 As Uncertainty Rules.