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Can India’s Exporters Weather Trump’s 50% Threat?
The Weekend Playlist
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Good Morning. This weekend, as India marks its 79th year of Independence, a new battlefront is emerging — in boardrooms and on shipping docks. By month’s end, US tariffs on Indian goods could rocket to 50%, turning trade ties into a high-stakes game of survival. For exporters — from garment makers to shrimp suppliers — this isn’t just a policy change, it’s a landslide, forcing a scramble to redraw markets, rewire supply chains, and rethink the very playbook of global trade.
THE CORE REPORT: WEEKEND EDITION
India’s Plan B To Beat The US Tariff Crisis
In this episode financial journalist Govindraj Ethiraj speaks to industry veterans Rahul Mehta, from Clothing Manufacturers Association of India and Ajay Srivastava from Global Trade Research Institute to understand why “Plan B” might not be enough.
The Reality Check
No quick fixes: Even if the government offers incentives, they can’t bridge a 50% cost gap.
Diversify or die: The US is just one-fifth of India’s export market — but too many firms rely heavily on it.
The long game: Real reform means cutting import duties on raw materials, easing red tape, and fixing textile policy missteps.
What’s On The Table
New markets: Push harder into the EU, Japan, Middle East, Australia.
Smarter manufacturing: Some exporters are already shifting orders to Bangladesh, Vietnam, or Indonesia to dodge tariffs.
Structural reforms: Revive the Interest Equalisation Scheme, overhaul PLI incentives for garments, and make it easier for MSMEs to export.
The Silver Lining?
At a macro level, US-bound apparel exports are just 5–6 billion USD — a fraction of India’s 120 billion USD apparel industry. The pain is real, but the economy won’t crumble.
As Srivastava put it:
We’ll be stirred, but not shaken too much.
The bottom line: With geopolitics shifting daily, the best bet for exporters is to stay nimble, broaden their base, and prepare for a world where tariffs are the new normal.
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HOW INDIA’S ECONOMY WORKS
Trump Has Reset India and the World for at Least the Next 15 Years
In this episodes, journalist Puja Mehra speaks with Neelkanth Mishra, Chief Economist at Axis Bank, about how lessons from past currency wars can guide India through today’s turbulence.
Why it matters: Global currency shifts are reshaping trade and capital flows. For India, the next decade is both a test and an opportunity.
The big picture:
After the Bretton Woods collapse, nations devalued currencies to grab trade advantages.
Similar pressures are back as big economies look to weaken exchange rates.
India’s balance of payments looks stable, but foreign capital access and careful currency moves will be critical.
Zoom out: Mishra argues that global flux offers India a rare reform window:
Clear barriers for entrepreneurs and farmers.
Boost tech access.
Build resilience in a protectionist world.
The bottom line: India’s growth can hold—but only if it seizes the chance to reform now.
Global Upheaval, National Ambition: India’s Policy Shifts in a Time of Flux
In this episode, Dr. Rajiv Kumar talks about his new book Everything All At Once (with Ishan Joshi). The book warns that India cannot rely on “business as usual” in today’s fractured world order.
Why it matters: India is pursuing growth amid global transitions—climate, technology, and geopolitics—that could derail its development path.
The big picture:
India is the first country tasked with developing while shrinking its carbon footprint.
The U.S. is retreating from universalism, China is rising, and optimism from the post–Cold War era has evaporated.
Policymakers face six simultaneous global transitions that defy piecemeal or linear responses.
Zoom out: Dr. Kumar cautions that without a new policy framework, India risks falling into the middle-income trap, missing its goal of becoming a developed economy (Viksit Bharat) by 2047.
The bottom line: The next two decades demand ambition, not incrementalism.
TEH SIGNAL DAILY
What You Need to Know About CIBIL Scores
Earlier this year, it was reported that a man didn’t get hired because of his poor CIBIL score. Another person was about to get married, but when the bride’s uncle checked his CIBIL score, the uncle decided to call off the wedding. Today, your CIBIL score isn’t just a number, it’s your financial reputation.
Still, many Indians aren’t aware of what their CIBIL scores are. A YouGov and CRED survey of over 5000 Tier 1 city respondents with at least one credit card found that 40% of surveyors were unaware of their credit score. 30% of them admitted to inadequate credit management knowledge.
In the latest episode of The Signal Daily, we’ll learn about what CIBIL scores are. How can you check it and what are the best practices for maintaining a good CIBIL score?
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