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America Great Again? Not Quite

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Good Morning. Even as US president Donald Trump persists with his diplomacy in Gaza, things aren't working as planned back home. Remember the original intention of the tariffs? To spur manufacturing in America, and make the country great again. But American companies aren't really responding to Trump's call to arms. However, the American president continues with his threats.

India’s equity indices closed higher on Thursday, for the second consecutive session. The BSE Sensex closed at 83,467.66, up 862.23 points or 1.04%. The NSE Nifty50 closed at 25,585.3, 261.75 points or 1.03% higher.

In other news, could India consider reducing its buying of Russian oil? Meanwhile, fast moving consumer goods giant Nestle plans massive job cuts.

Trump’s Call To Make Everything In America Isn’t Working

The most momentous event of the last week has been the Gaza ceasefire. While not everything is going according to plan, as of now, Trump is keen to keep the truce in Gaza going. He might have missed the Nobel Prize for peace this year, but wants to keep his claim for the next year, going strong.

Abroad, his trade war with China has intensified. After China announced refinements to its export restrictions on rare-earth products, Trump threatened to increase tariffs on imports from China to 100%. 

Unintended Consequences

The Trump tariffs are illustrating the law of unintended consequences, to the delight of Australians. When China decided to cut back on the import of soybean and corn from the US, it was a given that farmers in Brazil would benefit, stepping up their exports of these products to China. This was expected. What was not is the boom in Australian beef exports.

Brazil would have met the additional demand for imported beef arising from the drought-induced shortage of domestic meat production in the US, in the normal course. In the Trumpian course, the 50% duty the US has levied on imports from Brazil means that Brazilian beef imports are too pricey for American consumers. Australia has stepped up beef exports to the US, and to China.

The Trump tariff of 25% on steel imports has restricted British steel exports to the European Union. Less EU steel now goes to the US, and so the EU feels the need to keep out non-EU steel producers from its market. 

Tata Steel’s UK subsidiary does not feel this pain in full measure, however, because its biggest plant, the one at Port Talbot, is already out of operation as its replacing its traditional blast furnace with an electric arc furnace.  

When Will Trump Chicken Out? 

Another unintended consequence of Trump’s steel tariff is that US manufacturing refuses to respond to all the tariff incentives Trump has been plying it with. Setting up a new plant involves a lot of steel. And no one is sure when Trump would chicken out (Trump Always Chickens Out, goes the TACO slur) and how long these tariffs would last. 

The crackdown on immigration means that worker availability for new manufacturing units cannot be taken for granted, even if highly automated plants do not need many workers.

Even as Trump keeps harping on making everything in America, US firms keep flouting this call to arms. Google has decided to set up a large — 1 GigaWatt to begin with — data centre in India, its largest outside the US so far. It will come up in Vizag, with Adani joining in, and Airtel setting up a Cable Landing Station for Google’s undersea data cables, besides inter-city and intra-city data networks.

More data centres are good news, but it could turn into a curse, unless the demand for additional power that data centres generate is concomitantly addressed.

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CORE NUMBER

37.5%

That’s how much India’s exports to the US fell between May and September 2025 — the sharpest four-month decline in recent years — after Washington’s 50% tariffs kicked in. According to think tank Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI), shipments dropped from $8.8 billion in May to $5.5 billion in September, wiping out over $3.3 billion in monthly trade value.

The Backstory: The US imposed steep tariffs on most Indian goods in August, with the full 50% rate taking effect in September. Exports began sliding soon after — down 5.7% in June, 3.6% in July, 13.8% in August, and 20.3% in September — marking four straight months of decline.

What’s Next: Textiles and apparel exports dropped 41%, gems and jewellery 38%, engineering goods 33%, and chemicals 29% over the same period.

FROM THE PERIPHERY

India Weighs Russian Oil Cuts

Indian officials are in Washington for trade talks, with energy cooperation high on the agenda. India has neither confirmed nor denied Trump’s claim that Prime Minister Narendra Modi assured him of halting crude oil imports from Russia.

The Backstory: On Wednesday, Trump told reporters at the White House that Modi had agreed to stop buying Russian oil, a move he said would support efforts to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict. On Thursday, Ministry of External Affairs spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal said India’s top priority remained protecting consumer interests, emphasising the need for stable prices and reliable supply.

Setting: India, along with China, remains one of the largest buyers of Russian seaborne crude. While the situation is evolving, Reuters cited three sources saying some Indian refiners are preparing to reduce Russian oil imports gradually. However, an immediate halt is unlikely, as it could trigger global price spikes and stoke inflation.

UK Targets Nayara

The UK government has imposed 90 new sanctions targeting major Russian oil companies and India’s Nayara Energy for importing over $5 billion worth of Russian crude in 2024. According to Business Standard, the measures, coordinated by the Foreign Office and Treasury, aim to choke off Kremlin oil revenues funding the war in Ukraine.

Outcome: The sanctions also hit four Chinese oil terminals, 44 “shadow fleet” tankers, and Russian giants Rosneft and Lukoil. UK Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper said allies were “piling pressure on Putin’s oil, gas and shadow fleet.”

What's Next? Nayara, partly owned by Rosneft, called the sanctions “baseless” and a violation of India’s sovereignty. The company, which operates India’s third-largest refinery, had previously faced EU sanctions and is seeking government assistance to manage disruptions to payment, shipping, and maintenance.

Nestle Cuts 16,000 Jobs

Nestle will cut 16,000 jobs globally, about 6% of its workforce, as part of a sweeping transformation plan under new CEO Philipp Navratil. According to Reuters, Navratil said on Thursday, “The world is changing, and Nestle needs to change faster.”

Impact: The cuts will include 12,000 white-collar positions and 4,000 additional roles across various functions over the next two years. Nestle also raised its cost-saving target to 3 billion Swiss francs ($3.7 billion) by 2027, up from a previous goal of 2.5 billion francs, in an effort to improve efficiency amid investor pressure.

Context: This overhaul follows a period of internal turbulence, including the September dismissal of CEO Laurent Freixe over a concealed relationship with a subordinate, and the early departure of the company’s chairman. However, despite two years of slowing sales volumes, Nestle reported better-than-expected Q3 sales growth.

Air India Reinvestigation

The father of Captain Sumeet Sabharwal, pilot of the Air India plane that crashed in June killing 260 people, has approached India’s Supreme Court seeking an independent probe into the tragedy. Ninety-one-year-old Pushkar Raj Sabharwal has urged the court to form a panel of aviation experts led by a retired Supreme Court judge, arguing that the government’s inquiry has focused too narrowly on pilot error.

Backstory: In June, an Air India flight from Ahmedabad to London crashed minutes after take-off. The Aircraft Accident Investigation Bureau’s preliminary report suggested the Boeing Dreamliner’s fuel switches were cut off mid-air, implying pilot error — a conclusion the family strongly disputes.

What’s Next: Sabharwal says investigators overlooked possible technical or procedural failures. Filed jointly with the Federation of Indian Pilots, the plea seeks to transfer the probe from the government to an independent panel for a fair and thorough investigation.

THE CORE QUIZ

According to the Mercedes-Benz Hurun India Wealth Report 2025, what net worth qualifies someone as an ultra high-networth individual

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What total tariff burden could Chinese goods face in the US starting November 1?

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