A Grim Week In Review

JANUS VIEW

Pahalgam Attacks Add Yet Another Layer Of Uncertainty To India’s Woes

Death and perfidy cast their dark shadow over the week in review. Terrorists gunned down 26 tourists in Jammu and Kashmir’s idyllic Pahalgam, and injured several more. In a move designed to inflame communal passions in India’s already febrile polity, the terrorists first checked if their victims were Muslims or not, before shooting them dead.

The Resistance Front, identified by Indian authorities as an offshoot of the Lashkar-e-Taiba, which, along with Jaish-e-Mohammad, has been a prime Pakistan-based terror outfit active in Jammu and Kashmir, has claimed responsibility for the strike. The attack came while US vice president JD Vance was visiting India, along with his Indian-origin wife Usha and three children. Pakistan has chosen to attack India in the past as well, when India was playing host to senior American leaders. In 2000, on the eve of then US president Bill Clinton’s visit to India, LeT militants had killed 36 Sikhs at the village of Chattisinghpora, in Anantnag district of J&K.

New Delhi sees Pakistan instigation behind the attack. Pakistan Army chief Asim Munir had chosen to bring up a favoured Pakistan metaphor on Kashmir, calling it Pakistan’s jugular vein, days before the attack. Pakistan is in a mess, undergoing yet another austerity programme as part of the conditionality of an International Monetary Fund (IMF) loan. Terrorists have been staging spectacular acts, such as holding an entire train hostage in Balochistan, and killing Chinese nationals working on the China Pakistan Economic Corridor projects. The Taliban ruling Afghanistan have been refusing to toe the Pak line, and Pakistan has been deporting Afghan refugees in large numbers back to their country.

Popular unrest over the ousting of prime minister Imran Khan and his sentencing, along with his wife, for corruption, still simmers beneath the surface. The IMF has downgraded Pakistan’s growth rate for 2025 to 2.6%. When trouble hits Pakistan and popular discontent with the country’s rulers, meaning the army, bubbles up, the army conjures up fresh images of its old enemy, India. The post-election political consolidation in Jammu and Kashmir, and movement towards the restoration of statehood provoke Pakistan, as well.

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CORE NUMBER

165.7 million

This is the total number of domestic air passengers in India during FY25, according to data released by ICRA, a credit ratings agency. The figure marks a 7.8% year-on-year increase, with March alone clocking nearly 14.8 million fliers, up 11.3% YoY. However, despite the growth, ICRA expects the sector to post net losses of Rs 2,000–3,000 crore in FY25 and FY26, citing sustained cost pressures, aircraft grounding due to Pratt & Whitney engine failures, and high aviation turbine fuel (ATF) prices. The outlook for FY26 remains stable, but earnings recovery is expected to be gradual due to higher operating costs

—🇮🇳 🇵🇰 Diplomatic Action. Cross-border tensions between India and Pakistan escalated in light of the attack in Kashmir’s Pahalgam. India suspended visa services for Pakistani nationals, revoked valid visas from April 27 (except medical visas till April 29), and advised Indian citizens to avoid travel to Pakistan. In retaliation, Pakistan suspended the 1972 Simla Agreement, expelled Indian military diplomats, closed the Wagah border, and warned that any Indian move to halt the Indus Waters Treaty would be considered an act of war. Before the Pulwama attack in 2019, India traded chemicals, cotton, tea, and machinery with Pakistan, while importing cement, dry fruits, and leather goods. Now, the trade between the two countries is minimal. Pakistan has also closed its airspace to Indian flights, which means the international flights operated by Air India and IndiGo will now have to take longer routes. An all-party meeting convened by Jammu and Kashmir Chief Minister Omar Abdullah passed a resolution condemning the attack. 

—🧴 Muted Quarters for FMCG. Hindustan Unilever (HUL) and Nestle India reported underwhelming Q4 FY25 numbers, weighed down by weak demand and rising input costs. HUL’s net profit fell 3.6% YoY to Rs 2,464 crore, with a flat 2% YoY revenue growth. Category-wise, HUL’s biggest decline was in the beauty category reported in its beauty & wellbeing, foods, and personal care product range. Nestle India saw net profit slip 5.2% to Rs 885 crore even as revenue grew by 4.3% YoY. Both firms cited cautious urban consumption as the reason behind the decline, and Nestle flagged raw material price pressure on coffee and cocoa. Analysts say growth may remain sluggish in the near term.

—🇨🇳 Talks Or No Talks? President Trump has again said that US officials had meetings with China on Thursday, hours after Beijing’s denial. Earlier on Thursday, China’s foreign ministry spokesperson had said that there had been no talks or negotiations on tariffs with the US. In several statements this week US officials, including Trump, have said that there was scope for a reduction of the high tariffs against China.  In a closed door meeting on Tuesday, US treasury secretary Scott Bessent had said that the US’s 125-145% tariffs on China were unsustainable and that, in practice, they’d be a lot lower. The US also previously announced tariffs against several other countries, including India, though Trump has placed a 90-day pause on them.

—🚗 No More Diesel? India’s national capital, Delhi, is drawing up drastic measures against pollution with plans to limit the number of gasoline and diesel-powered cars that a family can buy, and a ban on fuel-guzzling motorbikes and scooters. A Reuters report said that the new electric vehicle policy will also incentivise buying hybrid or electric cars by waiving local taxes on them. Delhi is one of the most polluted cities in the world, with winters taking air pollution to hazardous levels. Delhi has been successful in switching many of its state-run buses to electric.

👥 THE TEAM

✍️ Zinal Dedhia, Salman SH, Kudrat Wadhwa | ✂️ Rohini Chatterji | 🎧 Joshua Thomas