Tariffs & AI Crash Global Party

THE TAKE 

From AI To Tariffs: The Impossible Choices for Global CEOs

Jeff Immelt, former CEO of American conglomerate GE and the man who succeeded Jack Welch, told me in an interview some years ago that it was not a CEO’s job to stargaze upon how countries might evolve their industrial policy.

He was responding to a question about how businesses should be prepared for the future.

“I think business people spend too much time worrying about government and cajoling government. Our job is to be the reactor to whatever is happening and be good at that,” Immelt had said.

He obviously did not mean that business leaders should be divorced from policy developments, but at the same time, should not spend time completely focused on it.

Immelt’s words ring true for any business leader, including in India today. For two new reasons.

A Changing World

Business leaders are usually used to grappling with maybe one or two significant variables at any point in time. One is always the marketplace and its competitive forces. The other is a company’s internal teams, finances and overall gearing, including the state of infrastructure, technology and plant and machinery.

There are two more elements in that mix which, in some ways, have overshadowed the above two.

Tariffs are obviously one. CEOs are already saying they are not able to provide guidance on upcoming financial results, as the factors in their control are not so much in their control. For example, Mercedes Benz, Stellantis, General Motors, Delta Airlines, Snap of Snapchat and American Airlines, among many more, have said they are unable to provide guidance, a critical input in normal times for analysts and the Street in general.

The second is artificial intelligence (AI). The pressure to bring in artificial intelligence to drive business efficiency and competitiveness is rising in intensity almost by the day now. Companies in information technology, whether products or services, are already saying they can do more with less.

Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella said on Tuesday that almost 30% of the code in his company is now written by artificial intelligence.

C Vijay Kumar, CEO of IT services major HCL Infotech, told me in an interview a few weeks ago that the industry had to transition from an input-centric model to an outcome-centric model.

But more businesses are now being forced to explore the use of AI within their businesses. And no business seems to be exempt.

Clinical trials, patent filings and drug research and development in pharmaceutical majors are gathering speed because of AI.

Consumer product companies are using AI to make distribution systems more efficient.

The Economist magazine pointed out last week that from ports like Rotterdam and power companies to steel manufacturers and mining companies, AI is driving efficiencies in traditional businesses like never before.

Rotterdam port uses AI software to analyse several dozen factors, tracking vessels, port emissions and estimated arrival times.

Oil giant Shell reportedly used the software to reduce “idle time”, affecting departures of barges and bulk shipments across all ports, by 20%, The Economist reported.

AI is a fast-moving technology that can alter competitive landscapes dramatically. But it is still something business leaders and boards are in a better position to proactively respond to, including the big challenge of galvanising their internal teams for change.

The Tariff Shock

The external threat of tariffs is not easy to respond to, and many businesses, small and large, have expressed helplessness, mostly because of the suddenness of it all.

If you go by Wall Street or Dalal Street, it is evident that the markets are breathing sighs of relief for every minor concession that US president Donald Trump makes — like the latest one for automotive manufacturers — even as there is a collective hope that the problem will somehow go away.

This is also evident in how Indian manufacturers have been reacting to the 90-day pause in tariffs, or by contrasting the tariffs India will face, which will be lower compared to China and Vietnam.

At a macro level, we rightly take some comfort from the fact that India is more of a domestic economy and thus more protected from tariff tantrums.

The Question Of ‘Normalcy’

Here is where the big challenge lies.

Should companies hope for a return to normalcy or move forward that there will be no normalcy any more?

Just like AI is forcing a new internal normal, tariffs are forcing a new external normal. One in which there is no guarantee of price protection or market access, like before.

Also that the past logic of market stability does not hold when political imperatives are shifting so dramatically, where the United States can declare friends and foes as economic enemies overnight.

Could it happen elsewhere too, and could it get worse? The US has responded with protection and a seeming thrust towards local manufacture, seeming because the arguments in favour are not clear to most at this point.

There is nothing to say that there will not be similar waves of political response to domestic politics in other markets and countries.

Will business leaders have to think of only local manufacturing with market proximity, and if so, will it make sense everywhere? If not, then how do they plan ahead?

Will old business models and industries hold true?

Time For Reckoning

China is effectively facing a trade embargo, given the levels of duties it is facing for exports into the US. At these levels, does it even make sense for Chinese companies to manufacture toys or other home goods for export or move out of toy making altogether?

One way to see it is that the capacities for many of these export-led industries only came up or scaled up in the last 20 years or so. Maybe the economic argument for their continuance is weakening. This is the question facing CEOs and entrepreneurs.

I was speaking with Vikash Mittersain, chairman of Nazara Technologies, a large Indian gaming company he founded in 1999, and run by his son Nitish as CEO.

Mittersain told me some years ago that he was in the textile business and had decided to get out of it. The idea was to move into a business that had technology as its underpinning.

And that’s how Nazara was born, aided by the massive boom in mobile telephony and data consumption.

This is not a new story.

Many large businesses that had a grounding in textiles, including some of India’s largest conglomerates from Tatas and Birlas to Reliance, mostly got out of it or went up the value chain.

Or it is a relatively small part of the overall business.

Business leaders and entrepreneurs have to face a similar reckoning now. They have to decide what to drop and discard forever. And focus on a new future.

There was something else that Immelt said to me, and this was in 2019, before the pandemic. He believed that businesses needed to be more adaptable and more local than they were before.

“We have to know that people are counting jobs, whether you’re in India or the US or China or Europe, people care about where work gets done, and we need to be facile around that.

So, we went from an era where business people didn’t have to worry about where work got done to an era where business people have to care about where work gets done. It’s not a bad thing or a good thing, it just is what it is.”

DECODE THE NEWS

Ather Energy’s IPO Lands Amidst Markets Jitters, But Can It Deliver Past The Losses?

What? 

In 2013, two IIT Madras alumni, Tarun Mehta and Swapnil Jain, embarked on a journey that would position them at the forefront of India's electric vehicle (EV) revolution. Their story began not in a corporate boardroom but within the academic corridors of IIT Madras.

Their initial funding was modest but meaningful. A professor at IIT Madras, impressed by their conviction, wrote a cheque for Rs 85,000 on the spot sometime in 2013. Several other professors contributed amounts ranging from Rs 30,000 to Rs 85,000, culminating in a total of around Rs 5 lakh. An angel investor added Rs 25 lakh, and the duo secured an additional Rs 15 lakh through IIT Madras's incubation programme.

That modest cheque from an IIT Madras professor marked the beginning of a journey that has now culminated in one of the most closely watched public listings in India’s EV sector.

Ather Energy’s Rs 2,981 crore initial public offering (IPO) closed successfully this week, backed by strong anchor investor interest. The company also raised Rs 1,340 crore from anchor investors ahead of the issue, including the likes of SBI Mutual Fund, Franklin Templeton Global, Aditya Birla Sun Life MF, Abu Dhabi Investment Authority (ADIA), and others. 

A Brief On Ather’s Funding

Over the years, Ather has raised around $578 million (approximately Rs 4,800 crore) in funding from a mix of marquee investors. Among them: Hero MotoCorp, which came on board in 2016 and remains the largest shareholder today, along with Caladium Investment and the National Investment and Infrastructure Fund. The co-founders—Tarun Mehta and Swapnil Jain—continue to be promoter shareholders, holding 5.5% each, while Hero MotoCorp owns 33.1%.

Notably, Hero MotoCorp hasn’t offloaded any shares in the IPO. Although Hero's continued stake might suggest tight integration with operations and manufacturing, the reality is quite different.

“We are a strong tech-led scooter company, starting with an urban OEM mindset. Their (Hero’s)  strength lies in motorbikes, mass, rural, et cetera. So different strengths, different worldviews, different approaches to building the business,” Ravneet Singh Phokela, chief business officer at Ather Energy, told The Core in an interview.

Can Ather Avoid A Ola Debacle?

Ather currently operates its manufacturing facility in Hosur, Tamil Nadu, which has an installed annual capacity of 4.2 lakh electric two-wheelers (E2Ws) and 3.8 lakh battery packs as of December 2024. Despite this, its capacity utilisation stood at just 39% for vehicles and 41% for battery packs in the nine months ending December 2024, constrained largely by demand volatility and battery production capacity.

​Ather Energy's market share in India's electric two-wheeler segment has been on the rise. In Q4 FY2025, the company's market share increased from approximately 11% in Q3 to 15%, driven mostly by its family-friendly Rizta model. In March 2025, Ather sold 15,446 units, capturing a 12% market share and ranking fourth in the segment. In comparison, Ola Electric led the market with 344,004 units sold in FY2025, holding a 30% market share. TVS Motor Company followed with a 19% share, and Bajaj Auto held a 17% share.

Ather reported a net loss of Rs 1,059.7 crore in FY24, up from Rs 864.5 crore in FY23 and Rs 344.1 crore in FY22. For the nine months ending December 2024, losses stood at Rs 577.9 crore. That’s despite a sharp revenue jump—from Rs 408.9 crore in FY22 to Rs 1,753.8 crore in FY24.

Although Ather attracted mass funding and grew steadfast in a sector with high burn rates and intense competition,  Ather’s approach has been strikingly methodical —engineer first, expand second. But public markets demand more than just engineering elegance. They demand profitable scale. The company’s ability to preserve its brand premium, expand with discipline, and overcome any subsidy headwinds will now be tested in full public view. For Ather, the road ahead isn’t just about building scooters —it’s also about justifying its premium brand positioning.

—⚡️EV Goals vs Ground Reality. India’s electric vehicle (EV) ambitions are big, targeting 30% passenger vehicle (PVs), 80% two/three-wheeler, and 70% commercial vehicle (CV) penetration by 2030. But the latest data from Counterpoint shows we're far from there: in 2024, EVs made up just 3% of PVs, 6% of two-wheelers, and only 1% of CVs. The only outlier here is three-wheelers, where 57% are already EVs, due to rising demand from the last-mile delivery ecosystem. Meanwhile, rising US tariffs on autos and components pose a threat to India’s auto component exports, but also open doors to alternative markets seeking non-Chinese suppliers, the report added.

—🏠No Keys, Just EMIs. In a landmark move, the Supreme Court has ordered the CBI to probe top builders and banks in Delhi-NCR over an “unholy nexus” that left thousands paying EMIs for homes that don’t exist. The scandal centers around subvention schemes, where banks released hefty loans to builders while buyers awaited possession. The probe, starting with Supertech, will expand across major metros. A Special Investigation Team, including police officials from UP, Haryana and nodal officers from India’s central bank the Reserve Bank of India, Housing Ministry will oversee the case. The verdict brings hope for justice, tighter regulation and a reality check for India’s housing market.

—🧾 Adani's Settlement Stalled. India’s markets regulator the Securities And Exchange Board of India (SEBI) has hit pause on the Adani Group’s request to settle over two dozen regulatory violations until it finishes a broader review of its settlement rules, Reuters reported, quoting sources. SEBI is scrutinising how Adani firms misclassified offshore fund holdings as “public” when they were linked to Vinod Adani. The regulator has asked that these be re-categorised as “non-public” before any settlement moves forward. Gautam Adani faces a U.S. indictment alleging bribery and investor misrepresentation, a charge the group’s internal review claims did not find evidence for.

—🔎 Census to Count Caste Data Too. Union Minister Ashwini Vaishnaw announced that the state will count caste data in the next census as well, The Economic Times reported. This would be the country’s first census in 14 years, since the ruling party didn’t conduct one in 2021, citing the coronavirus pandemic. In a Union Cabinet briefing on Tuesday, Vaishnaw also shamed the Opposition for politicising the demand for a caste census, without caring about “actual data or welfare.” Though the state hasn’t counted caste data in the census since Independence, the ruling Congress party under PM Manmohan Singh conducted a separate survey, the Socio-Economic Caste Census (SECC), instead.

THE MEDIA ROOM

What Role Does Tech Play In Today’s Media? Amagi’s Baskar Subramanian Explains

There’s a marked difference between the way content was consumed a decade ago compared to now. While it was a mix of OTT, theatres and actual dish TV, now it’s mostly OTT. With content going digital, there arose a need for the management of content.

That’s where Amagi, first founded in 2008 as a targeted ad solutions firm, comes in. The company now provides backend to some of the world's largest broadcasters and streaming companies.

“We are the tech backbone for lots of TV channels, both traditional and new ones, enabling them to run everything on a browser, sitting anywhere across the globe, with no real estate whatsoever,” Amagi's co-founder and CEO, Baskar Subramanian, told journalist Kohli-Khandekar on The Media Room podcast.

Last year Amagi was part of running the broadcast of the Olympics in the US for NBC. But what does that exactly mean?

“We produce the content. That means camera feeds come into a cloud infrastructure on a software. We're able to then take multiple camera sources, commentary, graphics, statistics about the whole thing, and eventually blend them into a feed or what the TV feed that we all see, for example, go through an advertising model,” Subramanian said.

👥 THE TEAM

✍️ Zinal Dedhia, Salman SH, Kudrat Wadhwa | ✂️ Rohini Chatterji | 🎧 Joshua Thomas